Classic

[jpops757]

Looks like a 2/1 favorite, maybe longer. Five and maybe more under 5/1.

[miraja2]

Man, it is weeks away and I am already getting tired of the Classic.
Anybody want to talk about the Champagne, Jerome, or Jamaica? Or maybe the second race at Calder tomorrow?
The way the BC takes over the sport bugs me a little more each year.

[miraja2]

I didn't mean that as an insult to you and this thread specifically jpops.
I just get tired of the more general obsession EVERYONE in the sport seems to have with the BC in general, and the BCC in particular.

[jpops757]

I see your point. Racing is more than just the two BC days and some attention needs to be given to the others not going to the BC. I had a hard time enjoying the great Belmont card today trying to watch ds boys. Was some of the best racing this year.

[whodey17]

Heck, lets start talking about the 08 Derby.

[Travis Stone]

If I had to guess right now I'd say the following odds on the top horses:

Lawyer Ron 3/1
Curlin 7/2
Street Sense 4/1
Any Given Saturday 6/1
Tiago 6/1
Hard Spun 8/1

[SniperSB23]

If I had to guess right now I'd say the following odds on the top horses:

Lawyer Ron 3/1
Curlin 7/2
Street Sense 4/1
Any Given Saturday 6/1
Tiago 6/1
Hard Spun 8/1

I'd say more like
Curlin 4/1
Street Sense 9/2
Lawyer Ron 5/1
Any Given Saturday 6/1
Hard Spun 8/1
Tiago 12/1

[whodey17]

It would be hard for me to see where Lawyer Ron would be favored to win the Classic. His wins in Saratoga were nice but he beat the same field at the same distance both times.

[NoChanceToDance]

I'd probably go more along the lines of:

Curlin - 10/3
Street Sense - 4/1
Any Given Saturday - 9/2
Lawyer Ron - 15/2
Hard Spun - 8/1
Tiago - 10/1

[avance2000]

has there ever been a horse coming off of back-to-back g1 and g2 wins at ten furlongs that was as lightly regarded as student council is right now (in terms of his chance at winning the classic)?

[ArlJim78]

has there ever been a horse coming off of back-to-back g1 and g2 wins at ten furlongs that was as lightly regarded as student council is right now (in terms of his chance at winning the classic)?
I like Student Council myself but those were pretty slow wins. Like 2:07 on the poly and 2:05 at Hawthorne, I know times don't tell the whole story. I'll still give him a look if he goes as a possible live longshot especially since he will be a total afterthought for most, but right now i'm feeling that he is a notch below some of the other. He might be a logical superfecta horse, especially in the case of a hot pace because he runs on very well with loads of stamina.

[philcski]

I'd say more like
Curlin 4/1
Street Sense 9/2
Lawyer Ron 5/1
Any Given Saturday 6/1
Hard Spun 8/1
Tiago 12/1

I think your odds are a lot closer to reality, however even in this scenario, if there's a full field of 14, every other horse would be 25-1 or higher. More than likely one of the 6 gets overlooked and goes off at 15-1, especially if one or two go lower than 4/1.

[NoChanceToDance]

Looking at a few bookmakers odds over here, The average odds of horses are as follows.

Curlin 9/2
Lawyer Ron 9/2
Any Given Saturday 5/1 (he has well well supported over here)
Street Sense 11/2 (very weak in the market)
Hard Spun 12/1
George Washington 16/1 (he has no chance)
Tiago 18/1
Student Council 20/1
Awesome Gem 25/1
Surf Cat 33/1
Diamond Stripes 33/1

[Mike]

I see no intersting longshot in the Classic(from the probables mentioned), looks like a win bet only is in order for me, at this point, probably Curlin

Can anyone remind me of George Washington's dirt experience(or breeding)?

[NoChanceToDance]

I see no intersting longshot in the Classic(from the probables mentioned), looks like a win bet only is in order for me, at this point, probably Curlin

Can anyone remind me of George Washington's dirt experience(or breeding)?

Well, he is by Danehill....... need you know anymore?

His run in last year's classic was pretty good (6th) at the time, but that was when he was in great form. He is yet to win this year and after a brief spell at stud, he has looked a shadow of the horse he was as a 3yo.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Looking at a few bookmakers odds over here, The average odds of horses are as follows.

Curlin 9/2
Lawyer Ron 9/2
Any Given Saturday 5/1 (he has well well supported over here)
Street Sense 11/2 (very weak in the market)
Hard Spun 12/1
George Washington 16/1 (he has no chance)
Tiago 18/1
Student Council 20/1
Awesome Gem 25/1
Surf Cat 33/1
Diamond Stripes 33/1

As of right now, I'd say LR and Hard Spun are two best values on that board.

The way Lawyer Ron got beat was a tremendous benefit to the chances of Hard Spun.

He was pulling early and was nailed in the very late stages of the stretch run by joint futures favorite Curlin.

I think you'll see Pletcher try to train a little bit of the speed out of Lawyer Ron coming into the Classic, and I think Velazquez will do what Velazquez almost always does in this situation...which is give Hard Spun a fairly unpressured free ride on the lead, while taking the pressure off his own horse and stalking comfortably from 2nd.

While JRV would be conceding an advantage to Hard Spun, he gains by avoiding a duel with the front runner (which would surely lead to both of them being defeated) and by allowing his horse to have more in reserve late for the challenges that will come from the horses just behind him (Any Given Saturday, Curlin, and Street Sense)

Velazquez can only give Hard Spun a free ride on the lead, and place himself in the dream rating comfortably from second spot if no other horse in the race chooses to press Lawyer Ron early.

On that board, the only horse who could logically do something like that is Any Given Saturday. And you have to remember, AGS is ridden by the conservative Garret Gomez. He's trained by Lawyer Ron's trainer, which probably decreases the chances he will force the hand of LR, thus causing LR to make HS quicken. Also, Any Given Saturday has hung several times when used prematurely in past races.

If there is no unexpected cheap speed entered, and the Monmouth track is playing as speed favoring as it was for much of the summer, I look for Hard Spun and Lawyer Ron to cinch up the top two spots...it would just be a matter if LR has enough in the final furlong to wear down a dream trip Hard Spun.

If the race is run in that scenerio, it's very possible that if something is able to rally wide and finish a competitive 3rd they will have run the best race of anyone...but will have suffered a strictly circumstantial loss.

Obviously, a lot of things can change between now and race day. Some entirely hopeless speed horse could pass the Dirt Mile and run in the Classic. Or, perhaps the Monmouth track isn't the inside-speed favoring paradise it was for much of the summer.

However, right now, it still looks like the speed has this race on a platter. And Hard Spun is the fastest of the group, and is the horse who needs the lead the most (he can be pretty moderate when he doesn't get it)

Lawyer Ron is the only one on that board who could deny him the lead, but pressing the front-runner isn't his riders style, it's probably not the horses best style, and he could be swallowed late if the idiotic tactic of keeping Hard Spun honest is employed.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Explain why?

[Coach Pants]

11/2 on Street Sense is a gift. He'll be 7/2 at best.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Crinkle

Trash Can

And if you say "because the entries haven't been drawn yet and you don't know who is in the field" - you'll earn your post a special place in the Tard Hall of Fame, because I was responding to posted future book odds.

[miraja2]

DrugS, what you say about Lawyer Ron makes sense, but according to Pletcher, he is going to do the exact opposite of what you spelled out.
According to this article (http://www.drf.com/news/article/89024.html):
"Pletcher said he would train Lawyer Ron a little harder going into the Classic, and said he and jockey John Velazquez believe it might be best to let Lawyer Ron roll early, rather than try and ration his speed."
Now of course, he could be bluffing and might actually intend a completely different strategy. If he is telling the truth however, that doesn't seem to bode well for Hard Spun at all.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm sure he is anticipating the Monmouth Park track to be as speed favoring as it was in the summer.

And, if by saying he's going to "send him" and "let him roll" he can bait Hard Spun into being the one who rates from 2nd - Lawyer Ron is a complete and utter lock in the Classic.

Hard Spun needs the lead, Lawyer Ron doesn't, and no rider trys to avoid being in head-to-head battles more than Velazquez.

I think the odds that these two horses duel for the lead are very slim. And Lawyer Ron only has the lead if Hard Spun doesn't break well, or breaks well and Pino doesn't want it.

[pgardn]

DrugS, what you say about Lawyer Ron makes sense, but according to Pletcher, he is going to do the exact opposite of what you spelled out.
According to this article (http://www.drf.com/news/article/89024.html):
"Pletcher said he would train Lawyer Ron a little harder going into the Classic, and said he and jockey John Velazquez believe it might be best to let Lawyer Ron roll early, rather than try and ration his speed."
Now of course, he could be bluffing and might actually intend a completely different strategy. If he is telling the truth however, that doesn't seem to bode well for Hard Spun at all.

Lawyer Ron showed he was itchy again early. He settled down nicely (not hard with that field), but he waisted some energy early. JV did not have the smooth go early on that he might have liked so I can see how he might feel this way.

[Coach Pants]

I'm not convinced Curlin can handle the turns at Monmouth.

Street Sense/Any Given Saturday/Hard Spun/High Cholesterol

[The Indomitable DrugS]

As of right now, 3 weeks before I am between Street Sense, AGS and Curlin. I don't have a strong opinion on either one yet, only that Street Sense is better than you think.

As of right now, I'm between two horses....and one of my horses is clearly a bigger price than anyone of your three.

How am I covering my ass by saying if the race was run right now, I'd bet a Hard Spun/Lawyer Ron exacta box...and if I had to play a future right now, I'd take one of those two?

[miraja2]

Until we know how the track is playing that weekend, this all seems like a relatively pointless conversation.

[Coach Pants]

Until we know how the track is playing that weekend, this all seems like a relatively pointless conversation.
Yeah. How about them Cubs?

[miraja2]

Well, as a lifelong Cubs-hater, discussing their poor performace in the playoffs would make me quite happy.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Until we know how the track is playing that weekend, this all seems like a relatively pointless conversation.

Not when future wagers are being discussed. And I responded to the posting of future wagers.

That's what I liked most about the original TVG fantasy contest...you had to handicap races three and four weeks in advance, and a lot of people just wrongly assumed that it's impossible to gauge how likely a race will be run weeks before entries are drawn. As well as wrongly assuming that tendencies for tracks about to open are impossible to know until races have been run over them.

[miraja2]

Not when future wagers are being discussed.
Fair enough.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Don't act like you are smoking out some huge longshot. You yourself said after the KY Cup Classic that your price on Hard Spun was now lost. He will not be 12-1, maybe half of that.

He's 12/1 right now in the future market open to the poster who I was responding to.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'll pass on Europe....

Did you actually think I wasn't going to mention that speculation driven contest?

I'm really a big Street Sense fan you know! You have it all wrong!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Change it to either Brady or Moss. You make the pick.

I'll take the one you don't.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If that's the case, go with Pennington in a Marshall jersey.

[NoChanceToDance]

The markets are interesting, and they will vary a great deal between the Atlantic Ocean. There are a few bookmakers over here that will have so called American experts, but what they know about the sport over can there can be written on a postal stamp.

Hard Spun will only get bigger than 12/1 over here because everyone is discounting him by saying "oh, he'll get caught" There is a possibility he will, but there is also enough reasoning to suggest that he won't, and while he price is getting bigger and bigger there is more and more reason to bet him.

Give it another two weeks and i think he will be closer to 16/1.

Street Sense cannot be given away over here, he isn't a horse that we 'euros' are too keen on. Everyone i speak to that follows American racing is of the opinion that he got very lucky in the KY Derby, and has looked slightly regressive since. Maybe his 2yo campaign is starting to have an affect on him?? Hard to say either way though.

AGS is the horse that the bookmakers have been taking most money for as i'm aware. He is a horse that i think will improve by going further. Many don't agree with me on this, but i think there is an outside chance that he will be even better over 10furlongs.

I'm surprised Lawyer Ron isn't bigger than he is right now, he opened in most markets as the 10/3 fav but hasn't really drifted that much after his defeat to Curlin. I was of the opinion that he would be outstayed in the classic.

As DrugS said, the race all boils down to one horse really, and that is Hard Spun. Not saying he will win, but a lot depends on him. Will he have to go hard early? Will he get a fairly easy time of it up front. On will Pino do an intelligent thing by going hard early, and then slowing the gallop down with a about four to run to stack the field up, and make it hard for the closers? That is something i'd like to see the American jocks do more often. If He could pull that off then the race would be surely between him and Lawyer Ron, while the closers will be having all sorts of problems.

While it isn't a superb field (in my opinion) it will be an interesting race from a tactical point of view.

[Danzig]

The markets are interesting, and they will vary a great deal between the Atlantic Ocean. There are a few bookmakers over here that will have so called American experts, but what they know about the sport over can there can be written on a postal stamp.

Hard Spun will only get bigger than 12/1 over here because everyone is discounting him by saying "oh, he'll get caught" There is a possibility he will, but there is also enough reasoning to suggest that he won't, and while he price is getting bigger and bigger there is more and more reason to bet him.

Give it another two weeks and i think he will be closer to 16/1.

Street Sense cannot be given away over here, he isn't a horse that we 'euros' are too keen on. Everyone i speak to that follows American racing is of the opinion that he got very lucky in the KY Derby, and has looked slightly regressive since. Maybe his 2yo campaign is starting to have an affect on him?? Hard to say either way though.

AGS is the horse that the bookmakers have been taking most money for as i'm aware. He is a horse that i think will improve by going further. Many don't agree with me on this, but i think there is an outside chance that he will be even better over 10furlongs.

I'm surprised Lawyer Ron isn't bigger than he is right now, he opened in most markets as the 10/3 fav but hasn't really drifted that much after his defeat to Curlin. I was of the opinion that he would be outstayed in the classic.

As DrugS said, the race all boils down to one horse really, and that is Hard Spun. Not saying he will win, but a lot depends on him. Will he have to go hard early? Will he get a fairly easy time of it up front. On will Pino do an intelligent thing by going hard early, and then slowing the gallop down with a about four to run to stack the field up, and make it hard for the closers? That is something i'd like to see the American jocks do more often. If He could pull that off then the race would be surely between him and Lawyer Ron, while the closers will be having all sorts of problems.

While it isn't a superb field (in my opinion) it will be an interesting race from a tactical point of view.

can't help but wonder if lawyer ron will be the roses in may to hard spun as ghostzapper.

and before anyone makes the leap, no, i'm not saying hard spun is on the same level as GZ. just that the race could be run in similar fashion.

[miraja2]

can't help but wonder if lawyer ron will be the roses in may to hard spun as ghostzapper.

and before anyone makes the leap, no, i'm not saying hard spun is on the same level as GZ. just that the race could be run in similar fashion.
I honestly don't see the race unfolding that way at all. Unless the track is a complete merry-go-round again, I have to favor Curlin and Street Sense over the two of them at 10f. People seem to be assuming that if Hard Spun gets loose on the lead he will win.
Well he DID get loose on the lead the last time he went 10f, and it still didn't matter. I think the finish of this race might look a lot more like the '07 Preakness than the '04 Classic.

[Danzig]

I honestly don't see the race unfolding that way at all. Unless the track is a complete merry-go-round again, I have to favor Curlin and Street Sense over the two of them at 10f. People seem to be assuming that if Hard Spun gets loose on the lead he will win.
Well he DID get loose on the lead the last time he went 10f, and it still didn't matter. I think the finish of this race might look a lot more like the '07 Preakness than the '04 Classic.

do you think an extra furlong would have changed the outcome between Hard spun and street sense at turfway? i don't.

[Danzig]

and as for the 07 preakness comparing to this years classic, i think lawyer ron and political force are better than the likes of mint slewlep, flying first class, etc etc.

[miraja2]

do you think an extra furlong would have changed the outcome between Hard spun and street sense at turfway? i don't.
Who knows? But I really don't think that matters. Using the outcome of 9f races on polytrack to determine which horse will prevail going 10f on dirt is rather unwise. Street Sense never seems to win on the tires.
Hard Spun has stretched out beyond 9f on the dirt three times. He is 0 for 3. Lawyer Ron is 0 for 3 at 10f. Could either of these win the Classic? Sure. But I am most likely looking elewhere (unless the track indicates a STRONG bias in their favor).

[Danzig]

No it wouldn't have, but that was essentially a match race. The Classic will probably be at least 10 or so starters and no free rides.

right, so who thinks street sense will get the same sweet trip he got in the derby? he will be impacted more by the field then a front runner.

[Coach Pants]

right, so who thinks street sense will get the same sweet trip he got in the derby? he will be impacted more by the field then a front runner.
I think he'll be closer to the pace but will get the rail turning for home.

Why? Because jockeys are morons.

[philcski]

you know what's the best part of all of this SS/HS debate?

the fact that we're even able to have it. when was the last time the top 3 finishers even made it to the Classic?

[philcski]

His trip was no sweeter than Hard Spun who was loose on the lead. Any of the other 19 could have ridden that rail. No one did. Not his fault. It's not like it was a surprise that Borel likes the rail and Street Sense seemingly prefers to run on the rail. And he has yet to be impacted by a field. If you can navigate a rail trip coming from well off of the pace, in a 20 horse field, you're pretty athletic and have a pretty quick burst. I'm confident he'll run his race. Now, it may not be good enough, but that's the fun.

It'll be good enough. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same triple as the Derby

[Travis Stone]

His trip was no sweeter than Hard Spun who was loose on the lead.

This is a solid point. And the same applies for the Kentucky Cup Classic.

We also have to remember that jockey's ride the race as well. And John Velazquez aboard Lawyer Ron will take the race to Hard Spun a bit earlier if he thinks Mario Pino is too loose-on-the-lead. It could spell disaster, but jockey's know they can't let Hard Spun get away too freely.

If Wanderin Boy or someone like that enters the race, this all becomes moot.

[NoLuvForPletch]

So I am up front, Hard Spun is my guy, but as I've said before it's hard to fathom him winning at 10f. They thing I'd like to interject is that I'm not sure Street Sense is the same horse he was in May, or maybe the others have caught up. He beat nobody in the Jim Dandy. Barely held on against Grasshopper, and we all know what happened to him in his next out. Then looked somewhat happless chasing Hard Spun in the KCC. How many times can Nafzger work his magic? At this point it looks like Any Given Saturday could be the one and that makes me ill.

[Coach Pants]

So I am up front, Hard Spun is my guy, but as I've said before it's hard to fathom him winning at 10f. They thing I'd like to interject is that I'm not sure Street Sense is the same horse he was in May, or maybe the others have caught up. He beat nobody in the Jim Dandy. Barely held on against Grasshopper, and we all know what happened to him in his next out. Then looked somewhat happless chasing Hard Spun in the KCC. How many times can Nafzger work his magic? At this point it looks like Any Given Saturday could be the one and that makes me ill.
He's still got 2 charges left on his wand. Might need more mana, though.

[brockguy]

i got the 16-1 available with ladbrokes on hard spun.. I think Street Sense is the real deal and last week was a perfect prep but that 16-1 looked way too big.

[Danzig]

His trip was no sweeter than Hard Spun who was loose on the lead. Any of the other 19 could have ridden that rail. No one did. Not his fault. It's not like it was a surprise that Borel likes the rail and Street Sense seemingly prefers to run on the rail. And he has yet to be impacted by a field. If you can navigate a rail trip coming from well off of the pace, in a 20 horse field, you're pretty athletic and have a pretty quick burst. I'm confident he'll run his race. Now, it may not be good enough, but that's the fun.

all true as well....anxious for the big day for sure!

[geeker2]

11/2 on Street Sense is a gift. He'll be 7/2 at best.


What we need is a few more negitive stories..like he worked to fast... or Carl scratched his head too long and it means he is concerned..some questioning media article and we can get 4-1..at that point it's back up the truck! I agree with DaHoss ..he has been pointed to this race by a trainer that knows what the hell he is doing....

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

He should be. He has no shot. No Cerin or Asmussen magic can get that slowpoke to the wire first.



keep in mind hawthorne altered their main track and did some things to it after the harness meet concluded this summer and has made the track slower. also there wasnt much early lick in there and jonesboro was allowed to coast on the front end and set very easy fractions which made him finish better than he shoulda at the distance, emigh did a terrific job on him that race

[Cannon Shell]

Just a few things...
1. What Lawyer Ron/Hard Spun does pacewise may be altered by the prescence of Mr. Umphrey and Rudy R. (assuming Diamond Stripes goes)
2. Personally I give Hard Spun almost no chance to win this race if all the probables go, regardless of pace, regardless of trips...
3. As I mentioned to Drugs before in another thread, Monmouth only gets one chance at hosting a Breeders Cup and if there are a parade of wire to wire winners on an obviously biased surface, they won't get another no matter how they handles the crowd, traffic, etc. Plus the fact that the races will be run in a different climate than the summer may alter how the track plays.
4. Post Positions may play a big role in who does what early in the race...

[NoChanceToDance]

Just a few things...
1. What Lawyer Ron/Hard Spun does pacewise may be altered by the prescence of Mr. Umphrey and Rudy R. (assuming Diamond Stripes goes)
2. Personally I give Hard Spun almost no chance to win this race if all the probables go, regardless of pace, regardless of trips...
3. As I mentioned to Drugs before in another thread, Monmouth only gets one chance at hosting a Breeders Cup and if there are a parade of wire to wire winners on an obviously biased surface, they won't get another no matter how they handles the crowd, traffic, etc. Plus the fact that the races will be run in a different climate than the summer may alter how the track plays.4. Post Positions may play a big role in who does what early in the race...

Their track has had a big speed bias most of this year, hasn't it? I don't really see why they should change it just to suit some of the more fancied runners. If Monmouth have had a speed bias for most of the year, the trainers will surely know what to expect.

What sort of weather can be expected in Monmouth later this month? If they are due for rain or very cold weather, there is every chance the track will quicken up even more.

I really haven't got a strong view on the race yet, but i do think it will revolve around what Hard Spun manages to do with Lawyer Ron (or the other way around).

[Cannon Shell]

Their track has had a big speed bias most of this year, hasn't it? I don't really see why they should change it just to suit some of the more fancied runners. If Monmouth have had a speed bias for most of the year, the trainers will surely know what to expect.

What sort of weather can be expected in Monmouth later this month? If they are due for rain or very cold weather, there is every chance the track will quicken up even more.

I really haven't got a strong view on the race yet, but i do think it will revolve around what Hard Spun manages to do with Lawyer Ron (or the other way around).
Being a summer track, there has never been any races run at Monmouth past the 1st week of September. Since it is so close to the ocean, the water tables and tides often can be a factor in the surface.

Monmouth officials have said they expect the track to play fairly which would be directly opposite of how the dirt plays during the hot weather. So naturally you would expect them to try to avoid a speed bias. The days before may offer a hint, especially if speed is not holding.

You have to understand that if a bunch of supposedly inferior speed types win all of Breeders Cup races, Monmouth will never get another shot at a BC. Since they are using the Breeders Cup as the focal point of a long campaign to get help from the state of NJ, they are going to want as little controversy as possible.

[King Glorious]

Just watched the overhead of the Derby and the Preakness again. For some reason, I gained just a little bit more respect for what Street Sense was able to do in those races. Now, there is every possibility that he hasn't progressed in the same manner as the others have. I don't think he has. I don't see him finishing better than third.....which means Hard Spun can't be any better than fourth.