golfer
05-26-2007, 05:46 AM
Figured I'd go back to Monmouth Park today, give it another shot.
Race 1: 3 main contenders, starting with #3, Discreet Charmer.. last 2 on the grass, solid #'s, if that form holds on dirt, this one is dangerous...#2 Secret Design, stretches back out off 2 fast sprints for Dutrow...#3 Clapham, gives weight, debuted sprinting with a TG 5, then "bounced" stretching out to a 10, came back sprinting again and got back to the 5, now stretching back out?...the other half of both Dutrow and Pletcher entries are also dangerous, although they may not run.
Race 2: VERY competitive turf race (1st of the year at Monmouth), every horse save the #8 can win (I know, load up on number 8:p ).. looking for value, #6 Ide Rejoice is very consistent, #3 Prince Alphie gets Bravo, fastest on his best..will be spreading this race.
Race 3: No value in this one, because #2 Who's the Cowboy will be very tough to beat.. ran 2 weeks ago 1st off layoff, didn't do much running, probably just a tightener for this spot. #1 Hey Chub has run well fresh previously...#3 Johns Pic, very solid line as 3 yr old, now comes back 1st start at 4.
Race 4: fastest horse in this 12.5 claimer is #6 Rockandahardplace, but why is he in this race? comes back on 2 weeks rest for the first time in his spacey career, have to try and beat this one...#9 Sly Diamond Jim, came out at 4 with a small top 9, then bounced to a 17, then back to the 9... getting back to the 9 quickly is a good sign, but reacting to it the first time makes him an iffy proposition...#11 In By Two, has a nice consistent pattern, 3 weeks rest.. only draw back is the 12 post...2 longshots to throw in; #10 Wander Cat, need to throw out the last 2 races, previous #'s make him competitive, and #4 Jacksoncandance, a bit slow coming in, but a solid, forward moving pattern.
Race 5: not much of a race on paper, #8 Disco Flirt had a nice tightener 3 weeks ago on the AC turf, should set him up well for today...#5 Chippewa Dreamer improved alot first Lasix in his last, which was 2 weeks ago, a repeat makes him dangerous.. #1a Whispeed Prayer had trouble and a poor start in his return 2 weeks ago, can improve today, although 11 post doesn't help.
Race 6: #2 Dynamic Dino, stretches out for the 1st time off a 7 pt top for Dutrow, this horse would normally be a major bounce candidate, but Dutrow is one of the "super" trainers? a defensive use only... top choice is #4 Three Miracles, 6-1 ML a square price, a repeat of last puts him right there at the wire..ML favorite #7 West Abe has run 4 consecutive TG 9's, which is competitive, but no reason to think he breaks thru today..#6 True Wood, Bravo and Levine, will take money, but would need to be a "different" horse from his lone previous start to compete here..#5 Afleet Tiger, very consistent, should be somewhere in the top 4.
Race 7: Interesting mile and 70 yards allowance race, if the price is right, taking a shot with #6 Cable Boy...debuted sprinting with a TG 5, comes back quickly and stretches out, need something near ML of 6-1...#4 Red Sail at Sunset, another consistent Ryerson runner..#5 Reata's Shadow, solid closer who broke his maiden 2 weeks ago, not sure how to read his pattern...the #1 entry for Pletcher is dangerous, as always, although neither stands out... #7 Brandon Beach makes 2nd start for Dutrow, didn't run well 1st out, but slop may have been a legitimate excuse...#8 Keeneland Kid, Bravo and Breen will take money, may be better in his next start.
Race 8: this may be the best betting race of the day.. #2 Presious Passion, comes off 2 "buried" races at GP, very nice spacing for this, ML 6-1 makes him very playable...#4 Freedom's Honor, 7 year old seems like more of a sprinter, but return at AC was deceivingly fast, 15-1 ML is very enticing...#6 Salinja (cross entered at Delaware), is solid and dangerous for Motion/Bravo... the rest of the field is pretty evenly matched.
Race 9: Very contentious race, #11 OK This Way, comes back 2 weeks off a nice race off the layoff, should pair or improve..#12 Corvo, likes the Monmouth surface, has better to run back to...
ML favorite #6 Bythebeautifulsea, shows the top fig in here, but was that a rail aided wire to wire job at Aqueduct? #8 Waramug's 3 races last year as a 3 yr old were 20, 10 and 6.. now comes back from a long layoff, might need one, but very dangerous. #1 Gateman should improve after tightener 2 weeks ago for Sleeter.
Race 10: The Feature'd Elkwood Stakes on the turf...#1 Pulpit Talk, loves the Monmouth turf, getting a bit long in the tooth, would need to improve to win, but the race comes up softer with 2 of the entries running yesterday at Belmont...the 2 obvious choices are #7 Host, Pletcher runner coming back from wasted trip to Dubai, those returning from there are always iffy propostions, and #6 Park Avenue Ball, extremely fast on dirt, but this is first turf try. #9 Bestowed for Dickenson, nice horse last year, but may need one, and #11 Touched By Madness has done better on the dirt recently.
Race 11: Maiden Special with very little to go by...a crapshoot, to say the least. With no standouts, you need to look first and foremost at the Levine 1ster, #7 One Smart Devil, doesn't need to be much to beat these...Thompson's #2 entry both ran competitive figs last year, both making 1st starts off the layoff...#3 Painted Feather, gets the rail for Sleeter, can improve 2nd out... another potentially dangerous firster is #9 Basic Trick.
A few spot plays at Belmont today:
Race 2, #7 Joppa Flats, been chasing this one for a while, today may be the day he breaks thru...
Race 3: #1 Trippis Storm, Hough's fast but nutty horse may have found himself as a turf runner.
Calder, race 6: #8 Saratoga Matt.. see trip notes about this one.
Best of luck to all, hopefully today will be my day to end the slump (Scav's has given us all hope).
Race 1: 3 main contenders, starting with #3, Discreet Charmer.. last 2 on the grass, solid #'s, if that form holds on dirt, this one is dangerous...#2 Secret Design, stretches back out off 2 fast sprints for Dutrow...#3 Clapham, gives weight, debuted sprinting with a TG 5, then "bounced" stretching out to a 10, came back sprinting again and got back to the 5, now stretching back out?...the other half of both Dutrow and Pletcher entries are also dangerous, although they may not run.
Race 2: VERY competitive turf race (1st of the year at Monmouth), every horse save the #8 can win (I know, load up on number 8:p ).. looking for value, #6 Ide Rejoice is very consistent, #3 Prince Alphie gets Bravo, fastest on his best..will be spreading this race.
Race 3: No value in this one, because #2 Who's the Cowboy will be very tough to beat.. ran 2 weeks ago 1st off layoff, didn't do much running, probably just a tightener for this spot. #1 Hey Chub has run well fresh previously...#3 Johns Pic, very solid line as 3 yr old, now comes back 1st start at 4.
Race 4: fastest horse in this 12.5 claimer is #6 Rockandahardplace, but why is he in this race? comes back on 2 weeks rest for the first time in his spacey career, have to try and beat this one...#9 Sly Diamond Jim, came out at 4 with a small top 9, then bounced to a 17, then back to the 9... getting back to the 9 quickly is a good sign, but reacting to it the first time makes him an iffy proposition...#11 In By Two, has a nice consistent pattern, 3 weeks rest.. only draw back is the 12 post...2 longshots to throw in; #10 Wander Cat, need to throw out the last 2 races, previous #'s make him competitive, and #4 Jacksoncandance, a bit slow coming in, but a solid, forward moving pattern.
Race 5: not much of a race on paper, #8 Disco Flirt had a nice tightener 3 weeks ago on the AC turf, should set him up well for today...#5 Chippewa Dreamer improved alot first Lasix in his last, which was 2 weeks ago, a repeat makes him dangerous.. #1a Whispeed Prayer had trouble and a poor start in his return 2 weeks ago, can improve today, although 11 post doesn't help.
Race 6: #2 Dynamic Dino, stretches out for the 1st time off a 7 pt top for Dutrow, this horse would normally be a major bounce candidate, but Dutrow is one of the "super" trainers? a defensive use only... top choice is #4 Three Miracles, 6-1 ML a square price, a repeat of last puts him right there at the wire..ML favorite #7 West Abe has run 4 consecutive TG 9's, which is competitive, but no reason to think he breaks thru today..#6 True Wood, Bravo and Levine, will take money, but would need to be a "different" horse from his lone previous start to compete here..#5 Afleet Tiger, very consistent, should be somewhere in the top 4.
Race 7: Interesting mile and 70 yards allowance race, if the price is right, taking a shot with #6 Cable Boy...debuted sprinting with a TG 5, comes back quickly and stretches out, need something near ML of 6-1...#4 Red Sail at Sunset, another consistent Ryerson runner..#5 Reata's Shadow, solid closer who broke his maiden 2 weeks ago, not sure how to read his pattern...the #1 entry for Pletcher is dangerous, as always, although neither stands out... #7 Brandon Beach makes 2nd start for Dutrow, didn't run well 1st out, but slop may have been a legitimate excuse...#8 Keeneland Kid, Bravo and Breen will take money, may be better in his next start.
Race 8: this may be the best betting race of the day.. #2 Presious Passion, comes off 2 "buried" races at GP, very nice spacing for this, ML 6-1 makes him very playable...#4 Freedom's Honor, 7 year old seems like more of a sprinter, but return at AC was deceivingly fast, 15-1 ML is very enticing...#6 Salinja (cross entered at Delaware), is solid and dangerous for Motion/Bravo... the rest of the field is pretty evenly matched.
Race 9: Very contentious race, #11 OK This Way, comes back 2 weeks off a nice race off the layoff, should pair or improve..#12 Corvo, likes the Monmouth surface, has better to run back to...
ML favorite #6 Bythebeautifulsea, shows the top fig in here, but was that a rail aided wire to wire job at Aqueduct? #8 Waramug's 3 races last year as a 3 yr old were 20, 10 and 6.. now comes back from a long layoff, might need one, but very dangerous. #1 Gateman should improve after tightener 2 weeks ago for Sleeter.
Race 10: The Feature'd Elkwood Stakes on the turf...#1 Pulpit Talk, loves the Monmouth turf, getting a bit long in the tooth, would need to improve to win, but the race comes up softer with 2 of the entries running yesterday at Belmont...the 2 obvious choices are #7 Host, Pletcher runner coming back from wasted trip to Dubai, those returning from there are always iffy propostions, and #6 Park Avenue Ball, extremely fast on dirt, but this is first turf try. #9 Bestowed for Dickenson, nice horse last year, but may need one, and #11 Touched By Madness has done better on the dirt recently.
Race 11: Maiden Special with very little to go by...a crapshoot, to say the least. With no standouts, you need to look first and foremost at the Levine 1ster, #7 One Smart Devil, doesn't need to be much to beat these...Thompson's #2 entry both ran competitive figs last year, both making 1st starts off the layoff...#3 Painted Feather, gets the rail for Sleeter, can improve 2nd out... another potentially dangerous firster is #9 Basic Trick.
A few spot plays at Belmont today:
Race 2, #7 Joppa Flats, been chasing this one for a while, today may be the day he breaks thru...
Race 3: #1 Trippis Storm, Hough's fast but nutty horse may have found himself as a turf runner.
Calder, race 6: #8 Saratoga Matt.. see trip notes about this one.
Best of luck to all, hopefully today will be my day to end the slump (Scav's has given us all hope).