Kasept
05-19-2007, 06:14 AM
Struggled through the Black-Eyed Susan Day card Friday, with very little in the way of good opinion. Superfecta call in the feature helped make a dent in the beating on the day, but singling of Your Flame in Me and missing winner Time's Mistress was the difference in a P4 ($750+) that would have made the afternoon profitable.. Preakness Day card solid as always, and weather looks like it will cooperate after all..
PIMLICO RACE COURSE -- 4th-12th
Pre-Scratches/Changes.. Supers in all..
4th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (P4, DD)
1. #10 Ten Across 8-1 8th
2. #7 Suave Jazz 8-5 WON
A. #9 Appealing Speed 12-1 7th
B. #4 Our Peak 20-1 6th
5th: Baltimore City, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)
1. #2 Salute the Count 7-2 5th
2. #1e Leatherbury entry 10-1 3rd/4th
3. #8 Tacirring 6-1 6th
LONGSHOTS/EXOTICS ADDS: #7 Max West 12-1 7th; #4 Heros Reward 12-1 WON
6th: 32nd Hirsch Jacobs (Gr. III), 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)
1. #4 Finallymadeit 5-1 6th
2. #3 Heart Thobbin' 12-1 4th
A. #6 Hobbitontherocks 8-1 3rd
B. #5 Street Magician 8-5
7th: 56th Gallorette (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (.50 P6, P3, DD)
1. #3 Aunt Henny 4-1 5th
2. #5 Precious Kitten 8-5
A. #6 Trick's Pic 12-1 3rd
B. #4 Grigorieva 7-2 4th
LONGSHOT/EXOTICS ADD: #7 High Moment 15-1 8th
<$75 P4 Play:
4: 7-10
5: 1-2-7-8
6: 3-4-5-6
7: 3-5
2x4x4x2 = $64
8th: 21st MD BC Sprint (Gr. III), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
1. #2 Diabolical 3-2 WON
2. #7 Talent Search 3-1 2nd
A. #1 Semaphore Man 6-1 3rd
B. #6 Fleet Valid 4-1 ("Come on Pork Chop!) 6th
9th: 15th Barbaro, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, DD)
1. #6 Chelokee 1-1 WON
2. #1 SCR
A. #7 Zephyr Cat 10-1 3rd
B. #4 SCR
10th: 106th Dixie (Gr. II), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)
1. #9 Einstein 3-1 DNF
2. #3 Cosmonaut 9-2 2nd
A. #4 Dreadnaught 10-1 5th
B. #12 Remarkable News 7-2 WON
LONGSHOT/EXOTICS ADD: #7 Stay Close 20-1 8th
11th: 21st W.D. Schaefer H. (Gr. III), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)
1. #7 Hesanoldsalt 1-1 2nd
2. #1 Ryan's for Real 10-1 3rd
A. #3 Take the Bluff 10-1 4th
B. #9 Flashy Bull 7-2 WON
12th: 132nd Preakness Stakes (Gr. I), $1,000,000, 3yo, 9.75f (DD)
1. Mint Slewlep (Garcia/Bailes) 30-1: Connections that brought you Scrappy T try Crown Leg #2 with hard tryer that must have looked nice at OBS '06 to bring $200k; First foal from unraced dam by Juvy winning Gilded Time was somewhat distant 4th/5th in pair of earlier graded tries; A cut beneath currently, but on the improve and not impossible at bottom of superfecta..
2. Xchanger (Dominguez/Shuman) 15-1: Son of good young sire Exchange Rate, a distance plus, endured 5 race loss streak between juvy Sapling (MTH-Gr. III) score and Tesio wire job this oval; Set honest pace in that prep, wisely passed Derby, and could be set for top effort out of red hot Shuman barn (47% W's at meet, 32% W's overall last 90 days); Seems a fit with Ramon, who's good at doling out speed, and was 2nd this event '05; Another exotics saver candidate..
3. Circular Quay (Velasquez/Pletcher) 8-1: Son of show horse this race in '95 ran courageously at Louisville while wide and with trouble when 6th (<10L); Must have exited Downs fray sharp off 8 week break to change mind of trainer who rarely attends these proceedings with his rose runners (Impeachment '00 lone starter); Johnny V. jumped off barnmate 'Roxy' like rat of sinking ship, and while certain to get pace for his closing kick, doesn't really have right style for this strip; Forgive Derby melee and Risen Star marred trip, and he's never been out of an exacta; Merits enough for top tabs and likliest winner from outside Derby trifecta attendees..
4. Curlin (Albarado/Asmussen) 7-2: Received predictably poor ride from regular pilot at Churchill dooming any chance this real racehorse had a fortnight ago; Still quieted critics with late-running Derby third once clear, and a candidate for the susies if rigors of intense campaign don't visit this day; Has tractable qualities that should suit race shape well if dimwit in the irons, (2nd here in '03-Midway Road), can make most of talents; Will feel effects of 4 fast efforts at some point, but if still together here, impossible to keep out of top four slots..
5. King of the Roxy (Gomez/Pletcher) 12-1: Purchased for similar pocket change as Teufelsberg, but owns pair of Gr. II wins and Gr. I placement via savvy handling; Like Xchanger, eschewed Derby run for date at this oval known to be kind to speed; Plucky colt adds Gomez, though Migliore got most out of him to date when milking OH-bred to near SA Derby stunner when last seen; Own sprint fig from clutch Hutch (Gr. II) that will play well here if distance limitations don't impede; Will offer value, and though we'll pass, can't fault those taking a positive view..
6. Flying First Class (Guidry/Lukas) 20-1: Derby Trial hero from 5X winner of this classic likely the biggest enigma here; Is certain pacesetter capable of stretching out to classic distance after pair of questionable attempts at Ozarks? Has services of money jock Guidry who is considerable upgrade on Arkanasas Derby pilot who moved him a half mile early; May be circling back to monster fig performance that grabbed attention on Southwest undercard, and D. Wayne would love to spring the surprise; Not on our ducats, but those hoping for him to hang around long enough to boost exotic tix could get their wish..
7. Hard Spun (Pino/Jones) 5-2 Rose runner-up did everything required at CD but win, and appears to have exited KY in fine shape; Respect conditioner Jones immensely, and Team Porter 'comes home' to site of large percentage of rider's 5k wins; With more front end company expected, will again need to employ tactics that earned Lane's End laurels in final Derby prep while leaving juice in the lemon to hold off late chargers; Sire delivered '92 edition winner Pine Bluff, and could pad legendary shed history today; Playing against on win end, but appreciate this one's credentials for repeat of performance level set two week ago..
8. Street Sense (Borel/Nafzger) 7-5 Nafzger champion wrote own chapter in Derby bible 14 days ago in tandem with kooky Cajun astride, and can continue march toward immortality with similar effort today; May need to overcome dependence on inside voyages to do so, and doesn't have the luxury of game's longest stretch here; Vulnerable on enough fronts to take a stand against if so inclined, but also remains horse to beat no matter how you break down race; Borel got feel for Old Hilltop Friday with wins and has to be sure not to leave Street Cry son with too much to do, but appears supremely confident going in and retains our endorsement..
9. C P West (Prado/Zito) 20-1: Familiar team of Zito-LaPenta appear late on the Crown Trail with precocious Came Home colt that has yet to show best this annum; Withers runner-up, (to noticably abent Chuck Simon purchase Divine Park), needs fig boost to impact, but that was true of Nick's '06 Preakness show pony Hemingway's Key (29-1) as well; Sole two turn run came in BC Juvy 6th, but son of Dynaformer mare designed for route of ground; Retains Prado, who despite launching career in Baltimore, has yet to hit board this event; Figures a use on deepest exotics and by Zito fans..
SELECTIONS:
Hard pressed to take creative approach in these mutuels; Believing the Derby trifecta will all regress a hard pill to swallow, though those only in it to cash well have little option; Taking stand against three favorites, AND Circular Quay, logical in many quarters, but you still need another price to get into the black type, and that seems a reach.. May be one to play only as part of the multis..
1. #8 Street Sense 2nd
2. #3 Circular Quay
A. #7 Hard Spun 3rd
B. #4 Curlin WON
<$50 P4 Play:
9: 6-7
10: 3-4-9
11: 1-7
12: 3-4-7-8
2x3x2x4 = $48
<$100 .50 P6 Play:
7: 3-5
8: 2-7
9: 1-SCR-6
10: 3-4-9
11: 1-7
12: 3-4-7-8
2x2x1x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
Good Luck!
Steve
PIMLICO RACE COURSE -- 4th-12th
Pre-Scratches/Changes.. Supers in all..
4th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (P4, DD)
1. #10 Ten Across 8-1 8th
2. #7 Suave Jazz 8-5 WON
A. #9 Appealing Speed 12-1 7th
B. #4 Our Peak 20-1 6th
5th: Baltimore City, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)
1. #2 Salute the Count 7-2 5th
2. #1e Leatherbury entry 10-1 3rd/4th
3. #8 Tacirring 6-1 6th
LONGSHOTS/EXOTICS ADDS: #7 Max West 12-1 7th; #4 Heros Reward 12-1 WON
6th: 32nd Hirsch Jacobs (Gr. III), 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)
1. #4 Finallymadeit 5-1 6th
2. #3 Heart Thobbin' 12-1 4th
A. #6 Hobbitontherocks 8-1 3rd
B. #5 Street Magician 8-5
7th: 56th Gallorette (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (.50 P6, P3, DD)
1. #3 Aunt Henny 4-1 5th
2. #5 Precious Kitten 8-5
A. #6 Trick's Pic 12-1 3rd
B. #4 Grigorieva 7-2 4th
LONGSHOT/EXOTICS ADD: #7 High Moment 15-1 8th
<$75 P4 Play:
4: 7-10
5: 1-2-7-8
6: 3-4-5-6
7: 3-5
2x4x4x2 = $64
8th: 21st MD BC Sprint (Gr. III), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
1. #2 Diabolical 3-2 WON
2. #7 Talent Search 3-1 2nd
A. #1 Semaphore Man 6-1 3rd
B. #6 Fleet Valid 4-1 ("Come on Pork Chop!) 6th
9th: 15th Barbaro, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, DD)
1. #6 Chelokee 1-1 WON
2. #1 SCR
A. #7 Zephyr Cat 10-1 3rd
B. #4 SCR
10th: 106th Dixie (Gr. II), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)
1. #9 Einstein 3-1 DNF
2. #3 Cosmonaut 9-2 2nd
A. #4 Dreadnaught 10-1 5th
B. #12 Remarkable News 7-2 WON
LONGSHOT/EXOTICS ADD: #7 Stay Close 20-1 8th
11th: 21st W.D. Schaefer H. (Gr. III), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)
1. #7 Hesanoldsalt 1-1 2nd
2. #1 Ryan's for Real 10-1 3rd
A. #3 Take the Bluff 10-1 4th
B. #9 Flashy Bull 7-2 WON
12th: 132nd Preakness Stakes (Gr. I), $1,000,000, 3yo, 9.75f (DD)
1. Mint Slewlep (Garcia/Bailes) 30-1: Connections that brought you Scrappy T try Crown Leg #2 with hard tryer that must have looked nice at OBS '06 to bring $200k; First foal from unraced dam by Juvy winning Gilded Time was somewhat distant 4th/5th in pair of earlier graded tries; A cut beneath currently, but on the improve and not impossible at bottom of superfecta..
2. Xchanger (Dominguez/Shuman) 15-1: Son of good young sire Exchange Rate, a distance plus, endured 5 race loss streak between juvy Sapling (MTH-Gr. III) score and Tesio wire job this oval; Set honest pace in that prep, wisely passed Derby, and could be set for top effort out of red hot Shuman barn (47% W's at meet, 32% W's overall last 90 days); Seems a fit with Ramon, who's good at doling out speed, and was 2nd this event '05; Another exotics saver candidate..
3. Circular Quay (Velasquez/Pletcher) 8-1: Son of show horse this race in '95 ran courageously at Louisville while wide and with trouble when 6th (<10L); Must have exited Downs fray sharp off 8 week break to change mind of trainer who rarely attends these proceedings with his rose runners (Impeachment '00 lone starter); Johnny V. jumped off barnmate 'Roxy' like rat of sinking ship, and while certain to get pace for his closing kick, doesn't really have right style for this strip; Forgive Derby melee and Risen Star marred trip, and he's never been out of an exacta; Merits enough for top tabs and likliest winner from outside Derby trifecta attendees..
4. Curlin (Albarado/Asmussen) 7-2: Received predictably poor ride from regular pilot at Churchill dooming any chance this real racehorse had a fortnight ago; Still quieted critics with late-running Derby third once clear, and a candidate for the susies if rigors of intense campaign don't visit this day; Has tractable qualities that should suit race shape well if dimwit in the irons, (2nd here in '03-Midway Road), can make most of talents; Will feel effects of 4 fast efforts at some point, but if still together here, impossible to keep out of top four slots..
5. King of the Roxy (Gomez/Pletcher) 12-1: Purchased for similar pocket change as Teufelsberg, but owns pair of Gr. II wins and Gr. I placement via savvy handling; Like Xchanger, eschewed Derby run for date at this oval known to be kind to speed; Plucky colt adds Gomez, though Migliore got most out of him to date when milking OH-bred to near SA Derby stunner when last seen; Own sprint fig from clutch Hutch (Gr. II) that will play well here if distance limitations don't impede; Will offer value, and though we'll pass, can't fault those taking a positive view..
6. Flying First Class (Guidry/Lukas) 20-1: Derby Trial hero from 5X winner of this classic likely the biggest enigma here; Is certain pacesetter capable of stretching out to classic distance after pair of questionable attempts at Ozarks? Has services of money jock Guidry who is considerable upgrade on Arkanasas Derby pilot who moved him a half mile early; May be circling back to monster fig performance that grabbed attention on Southwest undercard, and D. Wayne would love to spring the surprise; Not on our ducats, but those hoping for him to hang around long enough to boost exotic tix could get their wish..
7. Hard Spun (Pino/Jones) 5-2 Rose runner-up did everything required at CD but win, and appears to have exited KY in fine shape; Respect conditioner Jones immensely, and Team Porter 'comes home' to site of large percentage of rider's 5k wins; With more front end company expected, will again need to employ tactics that earned Lane's End laurels in final Derby prep while leaving juice in the lemon to hold off late chargers; Sire delivered '92 edition winner Pine Bluff, and could pad legendary shed history today; Playing against on win end, but appreciate this one's credentials for repeat of performance level set two week ago..
8. Street Sense (Borel/Nafzger) 7-5 Nafzger champion wrote own chapter in Derby bible 14 days ago in tandem with kooky Cajun astride, and can continue march toward immortality with similar effort today; May need to overcome dependence on inside voyages to do so, and doesn't have the luxury of game's longest stretch here; Vulnerable on enough fronts to take a stand against if so inclined, but also remains horse to beat no matter how you break down race; Borel got feel for Old Hilltop Friday with wins and has to be sure not to leave Street Cry son with too much to do, but appears supremely confident going in and retains our endorsement..
9. C P West (Prado/Zito) 20-1: Familiar team of Zito-LaPenta appear late on the Crown Trail with precocious Came Home colt that has yet to show best this annum; Withers runner-up, (to noticably abent Chuck Simon purchase Divine Park), needs fig boost to impact, but that was true of Nick's '06 Preakness show pony Hemingway's Key (29-1) as well; Sole two turn run came in BC Juvy 6th, but son of Dynaformer mare designed for route of ground; Retains Prado, who despite launching career in Baltimore, has yet to hit board this event; Figures a use on deepest exotics and by Zito fans..
SELECTIONS:
Hard pressed to take creative approach in these mutuels; Believing the Derby trifecta will all regress a hard pill to swallow, though those only in it to cash well have little option; Taking stand against three favorites, AND Circular Quay, logical in many quarters, but you still need another price to get into the black type, and that seems a reach.. May be one to play only as part of the multis..
1. #8 Street Sense 2nd
2. #3 Circular Quay
A. #7 Hard Spun 3rd
B. #4 Curlin WON
<$50 P4 Play:
9: 6-7
10: 3-4-9
11: 1-7
12: 3-4-7-8
2x3x2x4 = $48
<$100 .50 P6 Play:
7: 3-5
8: 2-7
9: 1-SCR-6
10: 3-4-9
11: 1-7
12: 3-4-7-8
2x2x1x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
Good Luck!
Steve