randallscott35
05-18-2007, 01:57 PM
Well, here goes:
Contenders:
Street Sense-- he has such an interesting line. What a terrific animal to run that kind of race with that giant 2 year old number. Broke an amazing amount of sheet history by doing it. So impressed by the job Nafzger did with him. I obviously thought that number would impact him for a year at least and it simply didn't. What mixed me up was that Poly race. It was a backwards move from his first start of the year and I thought the number he got for it was actually inflated, which I still believe---Look at the group that came out of the Blue Grass and how they ran in the Derby, dreadful....But not Street Sense.
If you believe the -2 number for the Derby(and I do) you have 2 ways of looking at this. One is that he matched his 2 year old number and will move forward. If he does, he will decimate this field. Think Smarty Jones....If he backs up, he could still win simply b/c he is such a fast horse. A 0 in year could take it especially with the rides Borel has been giving. I venture on him running well on Saturday though I won't put him on top.
Hard Spun--- my Derby pick didn't let me down running a strong race every step of the way. I will be off the bandwagon this time, however. Yes he hasn't moved backwards yet, but I see it coming. The pace scenario in here is nothing like the Derby. I see some pace, especially by the Lukas. A parked out trip is likely and even if he rates I think he'll be too close to the pace. I also think Street Sense is a better horse at this stage so the same race from Hard Spun isn't getting it done here. He's out of my trifecta entirely.
Curlin----Thought I'd settle on him at the beginning but I'm not there anymore. He could hit the board. I don't think he's winning and I also think those fast races all in a row are begging for a bit of time off. His line isn't terrible and he ran credibly in the Derby. 3rd for a horse that lightly raced is no shame....I'll include him in 3rd and 4th on a few tickets only.
King of the Roxy-- I think this is one of the best 3 yr olds around right now. I also don't think he wants to go this far. If he was kept at 7 and a mile I think you'd have a multiple Grade 1 winner this year. That being said, he is a serious value at 12-1 or over. For underneath mainly, but I'll have a saver on him on top. I just hope he isn't gutted from this. His first race this year was as impressive a 3 yr old sprint race as I've seen this year. ---A must use
Circuular Quay- This guy is good. His trip in the Derby obscured how fast it was. He ran a very nice race. And I'd venture to guess that in this spot, with enough speed up front he will run very big. Less horses to pass, less trouble to avoid and maybe gets the jump on Street Sense. I don't think the layoff is what did him in the Derby. I think he lost to a better horse. This time I believe he can turn the tables.
Circular Quay
Street Sense
King Of The Roxy
Contenders:
Street Sense-- he has such an interesting line. What a terrific animal to run that kind of race with that giant 2 year old number. Broke an amazing amount of sheet history by doing it. So impressed by the job Nafzger did with him. I obviously thought that number would impact him for a year at least and it simply didn't. What mixed me up was that Poly race. It was a backwards move from his first start of the year and I thought the number he got for it was actually inflated, which I still believe---Look at the group that came out of the Blue Grass and how they ran in the Derby, dreadful....But not Street Sense.
If you believe the -2 number for the Derby(and I do) you have 2 ways of looking at this. One is that he matched his 2 year old number and will move forward. If he does, he will decimate this field. Think Smarty Jones....If he backs up, he could still win simply b/c he is such a fast horse. A 0 in year could take it especially with the rides Borel has been giving. I venture on him running well on Saturday though I won't put him on top.
Hard Spun--- my Derby pick didn't let me down running a strong race every step of the way. I will be off the bandwagon this time, however. Yes he hasn't moved backwards yet, but I see it coming. The pace scenario in here is nothing like the Derby. I see some pace, especially by the Lukas. A parked out trip is likely and even if he rates I think he'll be too close to the pace. I also think Street Sense is a better horse at this stage so the same race from Hard Spun isn't getting it done here. He's out of my trifecta entirely.
Curlin----Thought I'd settle on him at the beginning but I'm not there anymore. He could hit the board. I don't think he's winning and I also think those fast races all in a row are begging for a bit of time off. His line isn't terrible and he ran credibly in the Derby. 3rd for a horse that lightly raced is no shame....I'll include him in 3rd and 4th on a few tickets only.
King of the Roxy-- I think this is one of the best 3 yr olds around right now. I also don't think he wants to go this far. If he was kept at 7 and a mile I think you'd have a multiple Grade 1 winner this year. That being said, he is a serious value at 12-1 or over. For underneath mainly, but I'll have a saver on him on top. I just hope he isn't gutted from this. His first race this year was as impressive a 3 yr old sprint race as I've seen this year. ---A must use
Circuular Quay- This guy is good. His trip in the Derby obscured how fast it was. He ran a very nice race. And I'd venture to guess that in this spot, with enough speed up front he will run very big. Less horses to pass, less trouble to avoid and maybe gets the jump on Street Sense. I don't think the layoff is what did him in the Derby. I think he lost to a better horse. This time I believe he can turn the tables.
Circular Quay
Street Sense
King Of The Roxy