5/16: Belmont ($44k Carry)

[Kasept]

Murderously tough set of races at Elmont today with a $44k carryover the lure.. Possible off-going/OTT adds to the intrigue.. and difficulty. Selections pre-scratch now, but a review after 11:30...

BELMONT PARK


4th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P6, P3)

1. #1 Contessa entry 6-1 6th/8th
2. #2 Rice entry 7-2 4th/9th
A. #3 Kat's Golden Ways 5-2 3rd
B. #5 Love Cove 6-1 WON


5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (Grand Slam, P3, Super)

1. #7 Specchio 6-1 5th
2. #5 Heretic 5-1 4th
A. #6 Truman's Gold 5-2 WON
B. #8 Ocean Forest 3-1 2nd

LONGSHOT/SUPER ADD: #3 Commodore Way 15-1 7th


6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 7f-T (P4, DD, Super)

1. #3 Inca is Calling 7-2 3rd
2. #11 Montecito 8-1 WON
A. #9 Joyeux Ruler 12-1 7th
B. #1 Mutakaway 4-1 5th

LONGSHOT/SUPER ADD: #5 Verona Dale 15-1 10th


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-T (P3)

1. #7 Delta Storm 5-2 WON
2. #1 Darley entry 3-1 2nd
3. #2 Dutrow entry 6-1 3rd


8th: The Ogygian, 3yo, 6.5f (DD)

1. #4 Silver Source 5-2 3rd
2. #6 Sports Town 5-1 WON
3. #2 Place Your Bet 8-1 4th


9th: CLM, 4+, 6f (Super)

1. #5 Archie Boy 5-1 3rd
2. #3 Letters 4-1 4th
A. #2 Fighting Roy Kelly 9-2 WON
B. #8 Quahada 5-1 5th
C. #7 Ghost Mountain 5-2 9th


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-3
5: 5-6-7-8
6: 3-9
7: 7
8: 4
9: 2-3-5

3x4x2x1x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


Good luck!
Steve

[XIIPointStables]

Card looks ultra tough. Quite a few NY-Circuit all-stars in the mix today. Plus I see Steppenwolfer slated to run on the turf. Sports Town back sprinting. Nice Wednesday stuff.

Good luck today Steve and the rest if the DTers.

[pmacdaddy]

Thanks!

Weather is nice now, but sounds like it may get nasty later today.

[blackthroatedwind]

A couple thoughts/questions.....


4th ) Not that I am a fan of Robbie Bailes, or his record in NY over the last couple years, but how exactly is Precious Too not at least in the top four? Certainly you didn't take her last seriously and isn't her other turf race, a sprint, very dangerous here?

5th ) I'm not running to the window to play Ocean Forest but how does he not get a top four mention either?

7th ) Obviously Delta Storm is a standout on paper but what about the turnback for Pegase Jem who made the lead against significantly tougher with a premature move last time? Isn't this sprint, against a horrible field save the favorite, just what this extremely short burst horse needs? Check out the first race of his career.

8th ) How bad is Wollaston Bay that even you disrespected your boy Sciacca by readily dismissing him? I agree, however, he has little chance.

[Kasept]

A couple thoughts/questions.....


4th ) Not that I am a fan of Robbie Bailes, or his record in NY over the last couple years, but how exactly is Precious Too not at least in the top four? Certainly you didn't take her last seriously and isn't her other turf race, a sprint, very dangerous here?

5th ) I'm not running to the window to play Ocean Forest but how does he not get a top four mention either?

7th ) Obviously Delta Storm is a standout on paper but what about the turnback for Pegase Jem who made the lead against significantly tougher with a premature move last time? Isn't this sprint, against a horrible field save the favorite, just what this extremely short burst horse needs? Check out the first race of his career.

8th ) How bad is Wollaston Bay that even you disrespected your boy Sciacca by readily dismissing him? I agree, however, he has little chance.
All great questions and all contribute to why I found this string 'murderously tough'... And curiously, you hit on ALL horses that I had in the selections at one pass or another. With Scratches, they might get back in the action..

4th: Precious Too was in the tabs and gave way to Love Cove. Kat's Golden Ways is suspect to me, but seems like she has to be used.. Precious Too goes from Open to State Bred, a powerful drop, but appears no faster than many here and is likely to lose ground..

5th: Originally had Ocean Forest in and will likely regret leaving out. Seems better suited to this condition than ALW company.. Squeezed him in favor of including the KO'B price play..

7th: I can't get past the two on top here, but Pegase Jem was an inclusion as well underneath.. Don't know if the cutback does the trick for him or not.. Lack of early zip the concern. Only gave a 1-2-3 offering, so no reason not to include him.

8th: And as for Wollaston and Super G, your cruelty knows no bounds.. (But be aware of the vastly improved effort when gaining diploma off the pop-and-stop try 3rd career...)

VERY challenging set of races which could be made REALLY quirky with off going..

[blackthroatedwind]

Unless someone runs around the Belmont courses with a fire hose there won't be off going until perhaps the VERY late stages of the card.

[Kasept]

Unless someone runs around the Belmont courses with a fire hose there won't be off going until perhaps the VERY late stages of the card.
Good to hear!

[blackthroatedwind]

Unlike you I share only good news and happy tidings.

[Kasept]

Unlike you I share only good news and happy tidings.
:eek: :eek: :eek:


BELMONT SCR/CHANGES:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp

[Riot]

Unlike you I share only good news and happy tidings.

LOL ... a couple of years ago, after I sold my private practice, I took a couple months vacation, just hanging around home. One thing I did during that time was to try and learn to start handicapping more professionally and in earnest (I will never be a professional gambler, as the time and attention to detail it takes is incredible) via following the Saratoga meet in great detail, including the Siro's broadcasts.

That was my introduction to a handicapping methodology that included rather "ruthless and calculating" assessements of a horses ability by some guy who turns out to be BTW. Hell, it worked. So my resultant wagering upon horses on a regular basis is a great deal Mr. Happy's fault.

[blackthroatedwind]

Thank you....honestly. You made my day.

[Kasept]

The Siro's Seminar Braintrust.. Crist; Pack; Serling..

http://i119.photobucket.com/albums/o122/kasept/harveyandy.jpg

[gilbertjump]

any words of wisdom on the p4 today?

Thanks
gilbert

[XIIPointStables]

The Siro's Seminar Braintrust.. Crist; Pack; Serling..

http://i119.photobucket.com/albums/o122/kasept/harveyandy.jpg

One of my favorite parts of Saratoga.

Siro's
A drink way too early in the morning
Red Pens
The three guys in the above picture.

That's the good life.

And it's been great to listen online the last few years, great move to get those on the net.

[Kasept]

any words of wisdom on the p4 today?

Thanks
gilbert
Yes.. Take a pass. I don't think it's worth playing in that you have to go very deep and it could end up chalky anyway... I honestly found this set of races to be a clusterphuck at 30 minute intervals.

[Coach Pants]

Where was that pic taken? AARP National Convention? :D

[pmacdaddy]

I am going to stick with pk4

3,5,9 / 1,3,7,8 / 4 / 2,3,5
$36

Sun is still shining...

Good Luck!

[ateamstupid]

Unless someone runs around the Belmont courses with a fire hose there won't be off going until perhaps the VERY late stages of the card.

I wouldn't be too sure about that ... Post times moved up slightly to avoid the storms.

Turf course is baked by the way ... Sub-1:34 mile in the third.

[whodey17]

Here is my ticket

Leg A - 2
Leg B - 6-8
Leg C - 1-3-4-7
Leg D - 1-7
Leg E - 4
Led F - 3-7-8

[gilbertjump]

Yes.. Take a pass. I don't think it's worth playing in that you have to go very deep and it could end up chalky anyway... I honestly found this set of races to be a clusterphuck at 30 minute intervals.


Will do thanks


...Gilbert

[philcski]

I wouldn't be too sure about that ... Post times moved up slightly to avoid the storms.

Turf course is baked by the way ... Sub-1:34 mile in the third.

That's fast, but not insane fast; this group should run 1:34 3/5 so it's a couple ticks faster than par. How exactly did a proven commodity at this level, Sabre Baby, get away at 6-1? I'm not betting today but I wish I was.

[Coach Pants]

I don't have the pp's in front of me, so maybe some of you could help me out. Is the Belmont late pick 3 worth playing today? Late 3 at Churchill is Fubar due to off the turf in the 7th and 9th.

[peetsa]

Going out on a limb starting with race #5. Single on Truman's Gold in the Pic 3 with Joyeax Ruler in the 6th and Pegase Jem and the Darley entry in the 7th.

[ateamstupid]

Pick 4 ticket:

1,3,4,8,9,11 / 1,7 / 1,4,6 / 7

$36. Good luck to all.

[peetsa]

Joyeax Ruler and Pegase Jem are on my playback list. Both should like the distance.

[zippyneedsawin]

Joyeax Ruler and Pegase Jem are on my playback list. Both should like the distance.


apparently the betting public agrees (unless it's all your money) because he's at 8/5 with 20 minutes to post. It's early so we'll see where he ends up, but Joyeux Ruler was 12-1 on the morning line!

[philcski]

In the 7th I like Memphis Mon but Tsuris intrigues me a bit at a price. Was compromised by a slow early pace in his last at odds on (on dirt- the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 7th place runners have come back to run 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in their respective next starts) prior to that won for fun in the slop to break his maiden, possibly indicating a little turf ability.

Or he could hate it and not pick up a hoof.

[XIIPointStables]

First click...Sports Town 4/5. Yikes.

[PSH]

Alive in the Pick 4 with a $2 ticket to:

2 = $1,084
3 = $630
6 = $5,258
8 = $721

Have not been able to close out in prior weeks, hope we can close out here.

I have hedged a $10 DD to the 5 and 7.

PSH

[Kasept]

Congrats Paul! Great work.. Turned out this 4 was well worth playing... !!!

[PSH]

Congrats Paul! Great work.. Turned out this 4 was well worth playing... !!!


Paid real nice. For a second i thought i might have had my biggest score ever, too bad the 6 could not get there. Anyway, thanks for your input as all 4 winners were there....

Paul

[ateamstupid]

Pick 4 ticket:

1,3,4,8,9,11 / 1,7 / 1,4,6 / 7

$36. Good luck to all.

****ing three out of four, as always. Should've singled Delta Storm..

[gilbertjump]

Congrats Paul! Great work.. Turned out this 4 was well worth playing... !!!
I am ready for tommorrow!

[hurricanefrank]

Congrats Paul! Great work.. Turned out this 4 was well worth playing... !!!

Yes, very nice job PSH. Solid capping once again by you, too, Steve. A little bigger P6 ticket -- spread a horse deeper in 2 races -- would've gotten the job done.

[Kasept]

****ing three out of four, as always. Should've singled Delta Storm..
I don't know Joe.. Think you needed to use both there.. Overloading in the first leg hurt you as that nightcap was tricky.

[ateamstupid]

I don't know Joe.. Think you needed to use both there.. Overloading in the first leg hurt you as that nightcap was tricky.

Opener was more tricky to me and I didn't want to play a huge ticket.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

I don't know Joe.. Think you needed to use both there.. Overloading in the first leg hurt you as that nightcap was tricky.
anouther country heard from..,,,,,,nice job phs

[PSH]

anouther country heard from..,,,,,,nice job phs

Are you working again this summer with Steve? Look forward to seeing you again - I will be up the week of Aug 4 - 11 with family this year....

Paul

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Are you working again this summer with Steve? Look forward to seeing you again - I will be up the week of Aug 4 - 11 with family this year....

Paul
not this year phs..first weekend for me 25th

[Coach Pants]

Good job PSH.

Redboarder of the day here. Went to Churchill and caught the late pick 3. That 6 was a game longshot. Thought I was toast.

[Kasept]

Hooves.. Are you working again this summer with Steve? Look forward to seeing you again - I will be up the week of Aug 4 - 11 with family this year....

Paul
Matt-O has been retired from BBQ duty after his spectacular '06 campaign.. He really had done enough...

[PSH]

Matt-O has been retired from BBQ duty after his spectacular '06 campaign.. He really had done enough...

Understand. After watching Matt and Joey last year working for 3 hard days i can see why one year is more than enough.

Do you have lined up your help for this year yet? and how does one top last year's season????

Paul