golfer
05-12-2007, 05:59 AM
Nothing like opening day at Monmouth, had success last year, will try again today.. lots of layoff horses, just need to figure out which are ready to go, which ones will need a start.
Race 1: #4 Brazenly Bold, 2nd off the layoff for Dutrow, 1st start at 3 at GP was very fast, most likely winner if he doesn't bounce. #7 Caymus Coyote, also 2nd off layoff after a solid race on poly, stretches out a bit, would not surprise. #2 Libertarian, claimed from Albertrani, 1st time Scott Volk isn't bad, 3 month layoff is questionable, has chased some good ones. #3 Justaroundmidnight, had trouble in his only start at GP, could run today at a price.
$2 exacta pays $22.40
Race 2: $5,000 claimer, many question marks, #4 Echo Quest, comes in off 2 very fast races at Philly, last was buried (these were the 2 best of his life), if he doesn't bounce, should win. #3 Seczone and #5 My Last Chance, both have competitive back #'s, and #9 Amalgamate, looks solid but unspecatular from the far outside.
$6.60 winner, $19.20 Daily Double
Race 3: #1 Awfully Smart, off long layoff for Goldberg, TG stats say this is not his specialty (1st off layoff), but this horse was very fast last year. #3 Stringtown Wonder, heavily raced, but very fast and consistent, dangerous shipper. #4 Sleek John comes in a bit slower than the rest, but has a great pattern, very likely to run a new top, will it be fast enough?
Don't like #2 Mantoloking, layoff Breen horse who wasn't all that fast last year (compared to these), and should be favorite.
#4, $20.40 winner
Race 4: Very contentious race with no real standouts, #6 Frank's Legacy is fastest coming in, but off big, no obvious excuse, bounce..#1 Lockup, part of Sleeter entry, ran 2 good ones last year (with BAR shoe), then eased and comes back off long layoff, who knows?.. #9 Four Shore, Perkins/Bravo, comes back off layoff, wasn't particularly fast last year, but is dangerous. #5 Jersey AJ, also coming off layoff, was consistent last year. This is a race to spread.
#9, $6 winner
Race 5: #3 Hallies Charm, nice forward moving line, last was fastest in this race (although it was also her career best), winner if she can pair or improve, nice 12-1 ML odds. #8 Greenwood Gal, DED shipper gets Bravo, solid figs. #5 Spanish Music's last 2 fit well with these.
Horrible!
Race 6: #6 Reata's Shadow is fastest coming in, most likely winner. #4 Awesome Chance, is 2nd fastest coming in, comes back a bit quickly, but should run well. #1 Silver King and #3 Dixieland Bandito, both eligible to improve stretching out, both dangerous.
6-1-3 Trifecta, $44.70 for a dollar
Race 7: #2 HighflyingEmblem, fast but spacey for Gambolati, most likely winner if he runs his race. #7 Chollie One's last was very fast, if he can pair while stretching out will be very tough. #1 Murphy Mill Miner, bounced a bit in last, stretches back out and gets the rail, contends. #6 Running Superstar, comes in a bit slow, but has nice pattern and could hit board at a price.
#2 winner, $3.40
Race 8: #8 Red Planet has run 2 big TG figs (6), 1st at 3 (last year), which he never recovered from, and now last out. If he's a stronger horse now, and can pair or improve off that, he's your winner. #'s 1, 4, 6, and 9 are all dangerous layoff horses, with #6 Luna Park the fastest, most consistent of the four. #7 Corvo, ran 2 good ones at Philly earlier this year, then laid off 2 1/2 months, why?
#6 winner, $10.80, 6-9 exacta $71.20
Race 9: the feature race, 5.5 furlong Decathalon Stakes...very contentious, 5 of the 6 are capable of winning in my opinion (which means you should probably play #3 Introspect, the only one I don't think can win:) ). #1 Yes Yes Yes, gets rail for Pletcher, very fast at 3 and 4, came out slowly at 5, last at Aqueduct was TG zero, and Pletcher horses don't bounce;) ..#4 Joey P, was outstanding at 3, not so good last year at 4, but came back at 5 with a solid performance at Aqueduct (TG 1 with trouble), makes 2nd start off layoff today. #2 Who's The Cowboy was BRILLIANT last year, but may need one 1st of the layoff. #5 Slam Bammy made 2 Florida starts this year, neither was good, comes back to Jersey?
4-5-2 Trifecta, $36 for a dollar
Race 10: #1 Royal Attire, makes 2nd career start for Dutrow, 1st was TG 3 sprinting, very dangerous if he handles the xtra distance and doesn't bounce off the 3. #3 Marital Asset, very solid for Hennig, has run three TG 5's in a row (last with trouble), gets there if Royal Attire doesn't. #2 Brush on By, and #8 Red Sail at Sunset should fill out the super. EDIT: #3 Marital Asset is scratched
Terrible!
Race 11: finishing the day off with a maiden special, and an interesting shipper from Penn, #7 Rockinanracin, ran a TG 10 first out, anything close to that today should win. Either first time starter, #3 Absolved and #11 Sonzul can be dangerous with these...#1 Raise the Moon can improve off the layoff for Sacco. #5 Thackeray, ships in from Philly for Allard, off short rest, strechout bounce, should run better. #12 Sea Spies, last 2 Philly weren't bad, shortens up and can hit the board at a big price.
Disgraceful!
Lone Star Derby (Lone Star, race 10): this is the TG race of the week, I absolutely love a horse in here, #8 Harrow Land. Had worked his way down to a TG 4.5, then backed up last time out to a 6.5, but that was because he got stuck on the rail, boxed in the entire stretch... I see a major break thru today, hopefully at a square price...also using #7 Reata's Rocket, and #3 Moyers Pond.
Did not play due to slop
As always, Good Luck to all today!
Race 1: #4 Brazenly Bold, 2nd off the layoff for Dutrow, 1st start at 3 at GP was very fast, most likely winner if he doesn't bounce. #7 Caymus Coyote, also 2nd off layoff after a solid race on poly, stretches out a bit, would not surprise. #2 Libertarian, claimed from Albertrani, 1st time Scott Volk isn't bad, 3 month layoff is questionable, has chased some good ones. #3 Justaroundmidnight, had trouble in his only start at GP, could run today at a price.
$2 exacta pays $22.40
Race 2: $5,000 claimer, many question marks, #4 Echo Quest, comes in off 2 very fast races at Philly, last was buried (these were the 2 best of his life), if he doesn't bounce, should win. #3 Seczone and #5 My Last Chance, both have competitive back #'s, and #9 Amalgamate, looks solid but unspecatular from the far outside.
$6.60 winner, $19.20 Daily Double
Race 3: #1 Awfully Smart, off long layoff for Goldberg, TG stats say this is not his specialty (1st off layoff), but this horse was very fast last year. #3 Stringtown Wonder, heavily raced, but very fast and consistent, dangerous shipper. #4 Sleek John comes in a bit slower than the rest, but has a great pattern, very likely to run a new top, will it be fast enough?
Don't like #2 Mantoloking, layoff Breen horse who wasn't all that fast last year (compared to these), and should be favorite.
#4, $20.40 winner
Race 4: Very contentious race with no real standouts, #6 Frank's Legacy is fastest coming in, but off big, no obvious excuse, bounce..#1 Lockup, part of Sleeter entry, ran 2 good ones last year (with BAR shoe), then eased and comes back off long layoff, who knows?.. #9 Four Shore, Perkins/Bravo, comes back off layoff, wasn't particularly fast last year, but is dangerous. #5 Jersey AJ, also coming off layoff, was consistent last year. This is a race to spread.
#9, $6 winner
Race 5: #3 Hallies Charm, nice forward moving line, last was fastest in this race (although it was also her career best), winner if she can pair or improve, nice 12-1 ML odds. #8 Greenwood Gal, DED shipper gets Bravo, solid figs. #5 Spanish Music's last 2 fit well with these.
Horrible!
Race 6: #6 Reata's Shadow is fastest coming in, most likely winner. #4 Awesome Chance, is 2nd fastest coming in, comes back a bit quickly, but should run well. #1 Silver King and #3 Dixieland Bandito, both eligible to improve stretching out, both dangerous.
6-1-3 Trifecta, $44.70 for a dollar
Race 7: #2 HighflyingEmblem, fast but spacey for Gambolati, most likely winner if he runs his race. #7 Chollie One's last was very fast, if he can pair while stretching out will be very tough. #1 Murphy Mill Miner, bounced a bit in last, stretches back out and gets the rail, contends. #6 Running Superstar, comes in a bit slow, but has nice pattern and could hit board at a price.
#2 winner, $3.40
Race 8: #8 Red Planet has run 2 big TG figs (6), 1st at 3 (last year), which he never recovered from, and now last out. If he's a stronger horse now, and can pair or improve off that, he's your winner. #'s 1, 4, 6, and 9 are all dangerous layoff horses, with #6 Luna Park the fastest, most consistent of the four. #7 Corvo, ran 2 good ones at Philly earlier this year, then laid off 2 1/2 months, why?
#6 winner, $10.80, 6-9 exacta $71.20
Race 9: the feature race, 5.5 furlong Decathalon Stakes...very contentious, 5 of the 6 are capable of winning in my opinion (which means you should probably play #3 Introspect, the only one I don't think can win:) ). #1 Yes Yes Yes, gets rail for Pletcher, very fast at 3 and 4, came out slowly at 5, last at Aqueduct was TG zero, and Pletcher horses don't bounce;) ..#4 Joey P, was outstanding at 3, not so good last year at 4, but came back at 5 with a solid performance at Aqueduct (TG 1 with trouble), makes 2nd start off layoff today. #2 Who's The Cowboy was BRILLIANT last year, but may need one 1st of the layoff. #5 Slam Bammy made 2 Florida starts this year, neither was good, comes back to Jersey?
4-5-2 Trifecta, $36 for a dollar
Race 10: #1 Royal Attire, makes 2nd career start for Dutrow, 1st was TG 3 sprinting, very dangerous if he handles the xtra distance and doesn't bounce off the 3. #3 Marital Asset, very solid for Hennig, has run three TG 5's in a row (last with trouble), gets there if Royal Attire doesn't. #2 Brush on By, and #8 Red Sail at Sunset should fill out the super. EDIT: #3 Marital Asset is scratched
Terrible!
Race 11: finishing the day off with a maiden special, and an interesting shipper from Penn, #7 Rockinanracin, ran a TG 10 first out, anything close to that today should win. Either first time starter, #3 Absolved and #11 Sonzul can be dangerous with these...#1 Raise the Moon can improve off the layoff for Sacco. #5 Thackeray, ships in from Philly for Allard, off short rest, strechout bounce, should run better. #12 Sea Spies, last 2 Philly weren't bad, shortens up and can hit the board at a big price.
Disgraceful!
Lone Star Derby (Lone Star, race 10): this is the TG race of the week, I absolutely love a horse in here, #8 Harrow Land. Had worked his way down to a TG 4.5, then backed up last time out to a 6.5, but that was because he got stuck on the rail, boxed in the entire stretch... I see a major break thru today, hopefully at a square price...also using #7 Reata's Rocket, and #3 Moyers Pond.
Did not play due to slop
As always, Good Luck to all today!