Hollywood Early PK 4

[lemoncrush]

Spent all of last week in Vegas for a conference, and had time to play lots of smaller tracks during the week (Prarie Meadows, Delaware, etc..), as well as Hollywood, Churchill, etc..
After taking a 5 day hiatus, I'm ready to roll tonight. The Early pick 4 at Hollywood looks very hittable. The late one could be tricky.

Race 1) #4 Espresso Love
Should run the rest of these into the ground.

Race 2) ALL
I hate using all in a race where the longest shot will be no higher than 10-1, but I could honestly make a case for every horse in the race. #5 Silk Kerchief is my pick, but I'm biting the bullet and hitting the ALL button.

Race 3) #3 Cousin Joe
A really weak field turned up for this this statebred Maiden event. #3 runs his usual race and he should win for fun. Look for the 6 and 8 to pick up the pieces underneath.

Race 4) 1,2,4,5,6
This race is FULL of early speed. A serious pace duel seems likely, and I like #2 Ivy League Miss and #5 New Years Resolution to be rolling late. Ugotadowhatugota do is taking a suspicious class drop after pulling up last time. I would play against him, but just can't leave him out. Judging by her AM works, the #1 horse Ninadivnia has a chance to return to her form from last fall and be contend at a nice price.

The play:
4/ALL/3/1,2,4,5,6
$1 PK 4: $35
Good luck tonight to everyone!

[pk4playa]

I did my homework last night and here's what I came up with for the early pick 4 at Hollywood. I agree with most of your analysis. I'm going.

4/ALL/1,3,4,6,7,8,13/4,5. I think the 4 will be tough in the first. He will be odds on but my only question is why the drop to 40K. This horse was competitive with strait madains and 62,500 Mdn. Claimers (2nd both times). He should crush this field but I'm a little suspicious of the class drop. The owners also paid allot of money for this horse and are willing to part with him for 40K.

The Second is wide open- go all and hope for a price.

I see the third as wide open to. I like the three but I think there will be more speed to challenge him. I like a bunch of these and am going to place a bet on the 1. The 1 should be a nice price 10-1+. He is dropping from open strait madien to Cal Bred st madien and makes his 3rd start of his career and he has improved each time out.

The fourth like you said is loaded with speed. There are two horses that I love in this spot. Both were claimed last time out. The 5 was claimed by Mullins fo 20K and is stepping him up to 25. (Mullins is 33% off a claim). This horse can also close into a hot expected pace. The 4 was also claimed in his comeback race. He went wire to wire in his return and was claimed for 20K and is also stepping up. The 4 has tactical speed and does not need the lead to win. He's come off the pace before which will be important in this race filled with Speed. I'm also going to play the 4 to win as long as I can get 4-1.

So here's my plays.
4/ALL/1,3,4,6,7,8,13/4,5. = 98
Race 3- 10wp on 1
Race 4- 20 win on 4

Good luck.

I need to finish my homework when I get home. Goto cap the late pick 4 which looks pretty tough. Nice card tonight. They must want a double carryover. Look for some prices!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The 5(New Year's,) in the 4th race,is a reclaim by Mullins.So,we have seen what he can do with that one off the claim.Horse is in the ballpark,but may be a length or 2 short against these.Every horse in here has a handicapping angle to take note of.Quite a race.The Mullins horse who pulled up last time seems best,but with all the angles in here,I can see one filly beating her.Probably just one.If I knew which one, I would tell you.

1-Been off the track again,and returns for new trainer (who has had some success here this meet.)She has some fast works,and past class.Hazbeen wake up(that's the plan I suppose.)

2-dropping off the claim(notheg new for this trainer who buys hi,and sells low)

3-dropping

4-Stepping up ...Won nicely for a fantastic trainer,but now gets new trainer and jock(prefer original trainer.)May be doing well enough to take it,but this trainer is kind of a speed trainer,and this horse needs to lay off.Big player.

5-reclaim...12,5-16k horse(if ya ask me.)

6-fastest horse on paper,but drops...chalk..If take all,I won't be surprised if she burns ya.Big Player.

7-Drop...Great gate jock up

8-2nd race back for filly with a 35% win%(Hungry Norberto too)

9-layoff horse..runs well fresh...gate jock this ain't

[pk4playa]

Scuds- Thanks, I didn't know that the Mullins horse was a reclaim. Your right, he's a 16K claimer at best but gets a favorable pace senario today. It a tough race, I like most of them to but I'm going with the hot horse (4). Like you said I hope he doesn't try for the lead or he's screwed in this race.

The third is tough IMO. I'm not so sure the 3 is going to do it. I think there's a few horses that canstep up and win.

What do you think about that first race. Are you going to single the 4 if you play the early4? I can't remeber what his purchase price was but it was way over 100K and he had two good races at higher levels. I don't know why there dropping him to a 40K maiden race. They either must want to get rid of the horse or really want to break it's maiden.

I bet the Pick 6 carries tonight. The pick 6 sequence looks very tough. Although there was a 99K carryover so the big players will be all over this one.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The 1st race ....Well I really liked the 8 horse's(Show Host) 1st race.Then he got banged around last time going into the turn(toss it.)Those 2 races are on turf.Now they drop to 40k,and on to the dirt.I have been waiting for him to come back(but not on dirt.)So,that is one odd move.Then the second odd move is dropping Espresso Love down to 40k.This horse ran way too fast to be put in for 40k maiden claiming.I'll use those 2 horses,and hopefully one of them is going to take that very odd 1st race.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Race 5 Hollywood Park

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$1.00 PICK 4

Leg 1: 2
Leg 2: 8,13
Leg 3: 1
Leg 4: 5,10

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Total: $4.00

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Can't fight d Mullins Elixir.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I did my homework last night and here's what I came up with for the early pick 4 at Hollywood. I agree with most of your analysis. I'm going.

4/ALL/1,3,4,6,7,8,13/4,5. I think the 4 will be tough in the first. He will be odds on but my only question is why the drop to 40K. This horse was competitive with strait madains and 62,500 Mdn. Claimers (2nd both times). He should crush this field but I'm a little suspicious of the class drop. The owners also paid allot of money for this horse and are willing to part with him for 40K.

The Second is wide open- go all and hope for a price.

I see the third as wide open to. I like the three but I think there will be more speed to challenge him. I like a bunch of these and am going to place a bet on the 1. The 1 should be a nice price 10-1+. He is dropping from open strait madien to Cal Bred st madien and makes his 3rd start of his career and he has improved each time out.

The fourth like you said is loaded with speed. There are two horses that I love in this spot. Both were claimed last time out. The 5 was claimed by Mullins fo 20K and is stepping him up to 25. (Mullins is 33% off a claim). This horse can also close into a hot expected pace. The 4 was also claimed in his comeback race. He went wire to wire in his return and was claimed for 20K and is also stepping up. The 4 has tactical speed and does not need the lead to win. He's come off the pace before which will be important in this race filled with Speed. I'm also going to play the 4 to win as long as I can get 4-1.

So here's my plays.
4/ALL/1,3,4,6,7,8,13/4,5. = 98
Race 3- 10wp on 1
Race 4- 20 win on 4

Good luck.

I need to finish my homework when I get home. Goto cap the late pick 4 which looks pretty tough. Nice card tonight. They must want a double carryover. Look for some prices!


PLAYA,you picked the 4th exactly right.Still lose $60 huh? Gee Playa,you ,mean you didn't know Puype could get a 40k maiden claimer to improve enough to beat a straight maiden? What a joke.Hay,water,and Oats..LOL