Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

[randallscott35]

Alright here it is. (Mods-if you would, you can leave this in the Paddock for a day and then transfer it to the Contest Forum--thanks)

This will be based on a 250 Race sample starting 3/8/07 and running till enough races are run.

Any horse 10-1 or over finishing second(OR FIRST) will be given a place payout((read addendum at end of Paragraph) (obviously based on a 2$ base bet)---that will then be checked for the favorite of the race being on top...If they are, the 2$ exacta payout will go in the Exacta column. If they aren't it will still count as a race towards the 250. (ADDENDUM---as Andy rightfully stated I have short changed the Place side as if the longshot won the race you would get both the place and the win---that must be added as well)

The tracks used will all be large tracks with large pools that aren't skewed.
AQ---GP---SA until the contest is over. Somedays there will be a number of races that qualify and others I'm sure very few.

I will post after all the races are run for a given day and give a breakdown by track and then also the overall breakdown until its over. Anyone who wants to double check the numbers is of course welcome to. It will take a couple of weeks but it is worth it to have a larger sample spread against a few tracks.

So, let the games begin tomorrow...GRITS we can pm each other and figure out something to bet on this. Good luck.

[blackthroatedwind]

You're obviously welcome to do it this way, or any way you like, but looking at past results will be faster and provide the same statistical evidence.

[randallscott35]

You're obviously welcome to do it this way, or any way you like, but looking at past results will be faster and provide the same statistical evidence.

True, but it will kind of fun to keep track this way. As you said if you sample any given month it could vary widely so I'd rather take my chances from here on in...A true entire year study would settle it but this kind of sample should do the trick.

[Grits]

You're obviously welcome to do it this way, or any way you like, but looking at past results will be faster and provide the same statistical evidence.

If going back we could look at GP, SA, and Turfw or AQ since Jan.9, or their respective opening dates. Though I no longer get Simulcast Weekly.

[Scav]

a) You would probably box with the favorite thus it should count if the 10/1 horse wins and the favorite runs 2nd or vice versa

b) anything over 20/1 is a stretch IMO, should be between 10/1 and 20/1 the way Andy did it first.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

chalk players...lol at least 1/2 of it

[randallscott35]

a) You would probably box with the favorite thus it should count if the 10/1 horse wins and the favorite runs 2nd or vice versa

b) anything over 20/1 is a stretch IMO, should be between 10/1 and 20/1 the way Andy did it first.
The way Grits described it is the way it will run. Boxing it has nothing to do with place betting....And over 20-1 will help prove the case that betting to place is the better option. Getting the 50-1 to finish second will not feel good when the fave is not on top in her situation....That's the way it goes.

[Grits]

a) You would probably box with the favorite thus it should count if the 10/1 horse wins and the favorite runs 2nd or vice versa

b) anything over 20/1 is a stretch IMO, should be between 10/1 and 20/1 the way Andy did it first.

Nope, no go Scav. We're not talking about boxing the exacta. Flat, straight favorite, over the longshot only.

[Grits]

chalk players...lol at least 1/2 of it

What are you talking about Hooves?

[blackthroatedwind]

The box is irrelevent to this particular discussion. We are ONLY looking at place vs. second to the favorite.

We could also compare a $10 wager in another study....$6 win $4 place vs. $4 win, $2 Box with favorite and $2 second to the favorite.

[Scav]

I came in on the ass end of the conversation and I look like a donkey...CARRY ON!!!

[randallscott35]

The box is irrelevent to this particular discussion. We are ONLY looking at place vs. second to the favorite.

We could also compare a $10 wager in another study....$6 win $4 place vs. $4 win, $2 Box with favorite and $2 second to the favorite.

Don't kill me Andy. LOL. Let's start with this the way it is. Haha.

[blackthroatedwind]

I will look at past data and make two groups....10-1 and up and only 10-1 to 20-1.

This should be fun and informative.

[blackthroatedwind]

Don't kill me Andy. LOL. Let's start with this the way it is. Haha.


The second one is much harder ( and will sometimes result in using both the first and second finisher ). The first is best because it's cut and dried.

[Grits]

The way Grits described it is the way it will run. Boxing it has nothing to do with place betting....And over 20-1 will help prove the case that betting to place is the better option. Getting the 50-1 to finish second will not feel good when the fave is not on top in her situation....That's the way it goes.

Dream on darlin', and let's see how many of those I pine over.

[randallscott35]

I will look at past data and make two groups....10-1 and up and only 10-1 to 20-1.

This should be fun and informative.

Let's do the data going forward. I want to have a fresh outlook on this and not expect the data to go in a certain direction.

[randallscott35]

Dream on darlin', and let's see how many of those I pine over.

You are the best....I pm'd you. Check it. Good luck my dear.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

someone has alot of time on there hands.......this about place betting vs doing an exacta with said horse on top of a lodigical fav 5/2 ..the exacta will come out on to 90 perc of the time..why the big study:D

[randallscott35]

someone has alot of time on there hands.......this about place betting vs doing an exacta with said horse on top of a lodigical fav 5/2 ..the exacta will come out on to 90 perc of the time..why the big study:D

B/c I feel like it and it will be fun. And I disagree with you. 90% of the time is if the fave comes in. Doesn't always happen that way.

[ArlJim78]

If all this brainpower could somehow be harnessed to benefit mankind, Al Gore could rest at night.

[Scav]

Let's do the data going forward. I want to have a fresh outlook on this and not expect the data to go in a certain direction.

You just want to cheer for favorites to run up the track.... :)

Either way, as long as the sample size is long enough (a whole meet), you should get a decent perspective on who is right....

Personally, if I understand this, Randall is saying that betting place is more worthwhile then playing an exacta, Grits is saying play the bomb with the chalk.

SPEAKING IN Natural odds, just plain Natural odds (10 horse race, each horse has a 10% change of winning) Randall wins this argument in a landside BUT I would have to break out some crazy algerbra to figure out the odds (using 30% as favorite winning as a national average)

[blackthroatedwind]

Let's do the data going forward. I want to have a fresh outlook on this and not expect the data to go in a certain direction.


Data is data.....and the past will be the same as the future.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

someone has alot of time on there hands.......this about place betting vs doing an exacta with said horse on top of a lodigical fav 5/2 ..the exacta will come out on to 90 perc of the time..why the big study:D
ext with the 5/2 over the 10-20-1..sorry

[randallscott35]

Data is data.....and the past will be the same as the future.

We shall see....Trainers winning at 30% clips today could be 5% going forward....Time will tell.

[Grits]

If all this brainpower could somehow be harnessed to benefit mankind, Al Gore could rest at night.

Al's sleeping with his Oscar and Tipper. So Al's happy.

[blackthroatedwind]

We shall see....Trainers winning at 30% clips today could be 5% going forward....Time will tell.


A statistic sample in the 100s takes care of that.

[Scav]

I love constructive arguments....(not a single name called yet)

[Grits]

I love constructive arguments....(not a single name called yet)

And isn't that a very good thing! (I did call his avatar "a little undulating tart" and he cast her off like a spent match.) LOLOL

[blackthroatedwind]

I just realized what is fundementally wrong with this study....


You have to use any horse over 10-1 that WINS or PLACES ( there will be two in some races ). As, if your horse wins you get the place money and lose the exacta. In other words, the horses that run out are irrelevent, as you lose $2 either way, but the ones that win and run second are relevent.

Even though we are saying " how would I do if it just places " you have to remember you cash both bets if it wins.

That is why my first sample was so skewed.

[randallscott35]

I just realized what is fundementally wrong with this study....


You have to use any horse over 10-1 that WINS or PLACES ( there will be two in some races ). As, if your horse wins you get the place money and lose the exacta. In other words, the horses that run out are irrelevent, as you lose $2 either way, but the ones that win and run second are relevent.

Even though we are saying " how would I do if it just places " you have to remember you cash both bets if it wins.

That is why my first sample was so skewed.

That's right!! So those count as well....She's going to get killed.

[2MinsToPost]

No offense, but does this thread not target those whom play the tote board and odds with a couple minutes to post, the "numbers players" who love to dash to the teller and yell out their crazy exacta boxes, keys etc?

I like to find my horses and play them win and place no matter the odds anymore

Pick 3's the same, as SCAVS WOULD SAY - FULL TILT

Tilt is great, and I love it on Friday nights

Dang, I gotta work till 9pm this Friday but am OFF ALL DAY ON SATURDAY!

God bless MEADOWLANDS HARNESS RACING on Friday and Saturday nights!

[blackthroatedwind]

To further what I just said.....each particular horse is an example...i.e. the horse wins you get X for the place bet and lose the exacta and any horse that places you get X for place and Y for the exacta where Y can be zero.

[randallscott35]

Actually let me think about this. We both would get the win end so maybe that is right...Now I'm confused.

[brianwspencer]

I'm bored.

I looked at all of the available charts on Equibase, between Santa Anita, Gulfstream and Aqueduct. It only comprised eighteen race days total, but I went through them.

I used Randall's original idea, of 10-1+ shot running in the top two versus a 10-1+ shot running behind the favorite (any favorite, lukewarm or odds-on) in the race. With that, it presumes that regardless of how you played it, that 10-1+ horse was the one you liked.

The totals I got were:

Aqueduct:
Place Wagers: $139.20
Exacta: $222.40

Gulfstream:
Place Wagers: $292.40
Exacta: $440.80

Santa Anita:
Place Wagers: $335.20 (may I add, just ONE of the exactas was worth $302.80 for a deuce, almost entirely negating the other sixteen double-digit place horses all by itself)
Exacta:$593.00

Total for published race days on Equibase:
Place Wagers: $766.80
Exacta: $1,256.20

Not even close so far.

[blackthroatedwind]

That's right!! So those count as well....She's going to get killed.


She's NOT going to get killed. She will probably prove to have the right side as the mathematics are in her favor ( due to the dispersal of takeout ). It should be pretty close.

Seriously, don't take this the wrong way, but this is not a contest of who's right or wrong. It's a very good study.

[randallscott35]

I'm bored.

I looked at all of the available charts on Equibase, between Santa Anita, Gulfstream and Aqueduct. It only comprised eighteen race days total, but I went through them.

I used Randall's original idea, of 10-1+ shot running in the top two versus a 10-1+ shot running behind the favorite (any favorite, lukewarm or odds-on) in the race. With that, it presumes that regardless of how you played it, that 10-1+ horse was the one you liked.

The totals I got were:

Aqueduct:
Place Wagers: $139.20
Exacta: $222.40

Gulfstream:
Place Wagers: $292.40
Exacta: $440.80

Santa Anita:
Place Wagers: $335.20 (may I add, just ONE of the exactas was worth $302.80 for a deuce, almost entirely negating the other sixteen double-digit place horses all by itself)
Exacta:$593.00

Total for published race days on Equibase:
Place Wagers: $766.80
Exacta: $1,256.20

Not even close so far.
Apparently you missed Andy's post from before. You have short changed my side by quite a bit. You missed all the win bets when those longshots won...If you do it again, you'll find me on top.

[randallscott35]

She's NOT going to get killed. She will probably prove to have the right side as the mathematics are in her favor ( due to the dispersal of takeout ). It should be pretty close.

Seriously, don't take this the wrong way, but this is not a contest of who's right or wrong. It's a very good study.

Yes, I know Andy. I'm just getting fired up.

[blackthroatedwind]

Apparently you missed Andy's post from before. You have short changed my side by quite a bit. You missed all the win bets when those longshots won...If you do it again, you'll find me on top.

I'm not sure he did....he said a 10-1+ running in the top two.

I would like to know the total number of examples.

I just asked the smartest statistical person I know, who knows little to nothing about racing, and he is going to think about it. He did suggest using pools that are larger as they will have little to no random skew. I said we were.

[randallscott35]

I'm not sure he did....he said a 10-1+ running in the top two.

I would like to know the total number of examples.

I just asked the smartest statistical person I know, who knows little to nothing about racing, and he is going to think about it. He did suggest using pools that are larger as they will have little to no random skew. I said we were.

GOOD ENOUGH. its fixed now. 1st or second on the place side vs. exacta on bottom for the other side. It will be reasonably close on second thought. But I'd say 60/40 in my direction at the end.

[randallscott35]

I'm not sure he did....he said a 10-1+ running in the top two.

I would like to know the total number of examples.

I just asked the smartest statistical person I know, who knows little to nothing about racing, and he is going to think about it. He did suggest using pools that are larger as they will have little to no random skew. I said we were.

You know what it is also Andy, I'm at the mercy of some of those longshots WINNING the race as simply finishing second will not do it for me...But the combo will vs. the exacta.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

mrs btw..is a m.i t grad..congrats andy..

[randallscott35]

Also, with the addendum that Andy pointed out, this will go much faster. Could be done within two weeks.

[blackthroatedwind]

You know what it is also Andy, I'm at the mercy of some of those longshots WINNING the race as simply finishing second will not do it for me...But the combo will vs. the exacta.

No, the ones winning help you, as you get the place money and can't have a positive exacta result. Y must equal zero in that variation. In other words, you have two possible positive results and the exacta has only one.

The reason Brian's " outlyer " ( the $300 exacta ) has to count is there will be outlyers of HUGE prices that run first or second and beef up the place result where there is zero cash in the exacta. You should hit the exacta somewhere close to 40% of the time WHEN YOU FINISH SECOND.

[randallscott35]

No, the ones winning help you, as you get the place money and can't have a positive exacta result. Y must equal zero in that variation. In other words, you have two possible positive results and the exacta has only one.

The reason Brian's " outlyer " ( the $300 exacta ) has to count is there will be outlyers of HUGE prices that run first or second and beef up the place result where there is zero cash in the exacta. You should hit the exacta somewhere close to 40% of the time WHEN YOU FINISH SECOND.
That's what I'm saying it will help me tremendously when they win. So the more winning the better.

[brianwspencer]

Apparently you missed Andy's post from before. You have short changed my side by quite a bit. You missed all the win bets when those longshots won...If you do it again, you'll find me on top.

Ok if I factor in the win bets, then that doubles the exacta bets, as the original premise was bet $50WP, or $100 on the exacta.

So these totals reflect $2 WP on each race with a 10-1+ shot in the top two, versus a $4 cold exacta with the favorite over said 10-1+ shot.

$4 Exacta: $2,512.40
$2WP: $1,576.70

I'm not trying to say that it's not possible that the numbers wouldn't even out over time, but over these 18 race days -- when factoring in the win money gained from a $2 WP bet, it closed the gap only by a miniscule percentage.

[blackthroatedwind]

mrs btw..is a m.i t grad..congrats andy..


There aint no " mrs ", how do you think I am able to live my ridiculous life, but the person I ask is, in fact, an MIT grad coincidentally.

[randallscott35]

Ok if I factor in the win bets, then that doubles the exacta bets, as the original premise was bet $50WP, or $100 on the exacta.

So these totals reflect $2 WP on each race with a 10-1+ shot in the top two, versus a $4 cold exacta with the favorite over said 10-1+ shot.

$4 Exacta: $2,512.40
$2WP: $1,576.70

I'm not trying to say that it's not possible that the numbers wouldn't even out over time, but over these 18 race days -- when factoring in the win money gained from a $2 WP bet, it closed the gap only by a miniscule percentage.


Buzz, you did it wrong again. You are doubling the exacta.

[blackthroatedwind]

Ok if I factor in the win bets, then that doubles the exacta bets, as the original premise was bet $50WP, or $100 on the exacta.

So these totals reflect $2 WP on each race with a 10-1+ shot in the top two, versus a $4 cold exacta with the favorite over said 10-1+ shot.

$4 Exacta: $2,512.40
$2WP: $1,576.70

I'm not trying to say that it's not possible that the numbers wouldn't even out over time, but over these 18 race days -- when factoring in the win money gained from a $2 WP bet, it closed the gap only by a miniscule percentage.


We are only looking at one part of the total wager.....$2 to place versus $2 below the favorite in the exacta. We are trying to determine which is a better hedge.

[blackthroatedwind]

Buzz, you did it wrong again. You are doubling the exacta.


He's doubling it because you are doubling the money bet on the other side. However, it is not at all what we are looking at.

The closer argument to his last numbers is $2 WP or a $2 exacta box.

[randallscott35]

He's doubling it because you are doubling the money bet on the other side. However, it is not at all what we are looking at.

The closer argument to his last numbers is $2 WP or a $2 exacta box.

Yes. He has misunderstood the original bet....When I start scoring, everyone and their mother can double check it and make sure we are scoring the right way. it will be fair...People are getting ahead of themselves are not understanding the point of this.

[Sightseek]

I'm bored.

I looked at all of the available charts on Equibase, between Santa Anita, Gulfstream and Aqueduct. It only comprised eighteen race days total, but I went through them.

I used Randall's original idea, of 10-1+ shot running in the top two versus a 10-1+ shot running behind the favorite (any favorite, lukewarm or odds-on) in the race. With that, it presumes that regardless of how you played it, that 10-1+ horse was the one you liked.

The totals I got were:

Aqueduct:
Place Wagers: $139.20
Exacta: $222.40

Gulfstream:
Place Wagers: $292.40
Exacta: $440.80

Santa Anita:
Place Wagers: $335.20 (may I add, just ONE of the exactas was worth $302.80 for a deuce, almost entirely negating the other sixteen double-digit place horses all by itself)
Exacta:$593.00

Total for published race days on Equibase:
Place Wagers: $766.80
Exacta: $1,256.20

Not even close so far.

I can give you chart information for Gulfstream from the beginning of February tomorrow or thursday night if you'd like to check that further (John Stewart is coming on in a few :) )

[brianwspencer]

We are only looking at one part of the total wager.....$2 to place versus $2 below the favorite in the exacta. We are trying to determine which is a better hedge.

That was the first set of numbers I did, with no regard to anything else.

Sorry if I misunderstood the original premise that created the question to begin with, I thought it was the $50 WP vs $100 Exacta that started the whole thing...

Ho-hum.

[Grits]

Ok if I factor in the win bets, then that doubles the exacta bets, as the original premise was bet $50WP, or $100 on the exacta.

BINGO, and that's why this is troubling me. Thank you Bryan. We're getting away from my original statement. Far away.

[quote]So these totals reflect $2 WP on each race with a 10-1+ shot in the top two, versus a $4 cold exacta with the favorite over said 10-1+ shot.

$4 Exacta: $2,512.40
$2WP: $1,576.70

I'm not trying to say that it's not possible that the numbers wouldn't even out over time, but over these 18 race days -- when factoring in the win money gained from a $2 WP bet, it closed the gap only by a miniscule percentage.

This bet was not about win betting, this was about place betting. Go back to my original post, where I told you to look at today's 6th at GP. If you want to look at a $50 place bet, etc, .....something's not jiving with my original point. I've got to refer back.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i thought there was some grey matter involved..and congrats on your lone wolf lifestyle..you and byk...the dice man meets sam ace rothstine..no problems no nagging...gotta love it......:D

[blackthroatedwind]

Yes. He has misunderstood the original bet....When I start scoring, everyone and their mother can double check it and make sure we are scoring the right way. it will be fair...People are getting ahead of themselves are not understanding the point of this.

Only in the second one.

You better relax on the certainty that you are right here....as you probably are not.

Brian's pretty smart. He knows what he's looking at.

[randallscott35]

[QUOTE=brianwspencer]Ok if I factor in the win bets, then that doubles the exacta bets, as the original premise was bet $50WP, or $100 on the exacta.

BINGO, and that's why this is troubling me. Thank you Bryan. We're getting away from my original statement. Far away.



This bet was not about win betting, this was about place betting. Go back to my original post, where I told you to look at today's 6th at GP. If you want to look at a $50 place bet, etc, .....something's not jiving with my original point. I've got to refer back.
WHAT? It's pretty clear how this works. If we do this on a 2 dollar bet, essentially I have 2$ win and place on a horse. You have 2$ to win and 2$ with the favorite over top in the exacta. That is exactly what it is!!

[ArlJim78]

Paging Stephen Hawking, please call your office.

[randallscott35]

[QUOTE=Grits]
WHAT? It's pretty clear how this works. If we do this on a 2 dollar bet, essentially I have 2$ win and place on a horse. You have 2$ to win and 2$ with the favorite over top in the exacta. That is exactly what it is!!

Double checking this is correct. 2$WP on a 10-1 or greater shot vs. 2$win and 2$ exac with fave over longshot. That should come out perfectly.

[VOL JACK]

My standard play is $50 to win and $25 ex. box with my key horse and my second choice in the race. Or $25 ex. keying my horse over 2 horses. I have never understood the bet to win then turn around and key my horse in second only! A place bet is a hedge, i prefer to hedge with an exacta. I am kinda like Andy Beyer in that if am right I want to be really right and if my opion was wrong I didn't deserve to cash, anyhow. Perfect example is today in the last race @G.P my key horse #4 @ 7-1 paid only $7.40 to place, even with a 56-1 winning the race. One more example is my friend @ the OTB I attend is a $200 WP guy. He refuses to play an exacta. There are alot times that my $100 cashes for alot more than his $200 place bets. P.S. I'm really looking forward to the Youbet shows Andy!!

[Grits]

[QUOTE=randallscott35]

Double checking this is correct. 2$WP on a 10-1 or greater shot vs. 2$win and 2$ exac with fave over longshot. That should come out perfectly.

Andy and RS, before we finalize everything would both of you go back to page 4 of the "Closest You've Come" thread, read that page, read what each of us stated as instances, and make sure for me, that we're all on the same page with our conditions.

I don't wanna have to call my CPA in the morning.

[randallscott35]

[QUOTE=randallscott35]

Andy and RS, before we finalize everything would both of you go back to page 4 of the "Closest You've Come" thread, read that page, read what each of us stated as instances, and make sure for me, that we're all on the same page with our conditions.

I don't wanna have to call my CPA in the morning.

Understood, but its bedtime for me tomorrow it will be done....We'll work it out. It will start tomorrow regardless.

[blackthroatedwind]

Double checking this is correct. 2$WP on a 10-1 or greater shot vs. 2$win and 2$ exac with fave over longshot. That should come out perfectly.


This is redundant, as both bets have $2 to win, thus what we are checking is the difference between TWO bets...either $2 to place, which you cash if the horse runs first or second, or a $2 exacta underneath the favorite which you only cash if you run second AND the favorite wins.

[Grits]

This is redundant, as both bets have $2 to win, thus what we are checking is the difference between TWO bets...either $2 to place, which you cash if the horse runs first or second, or a $2 exacta underneath the favorite which you only cash if you run second AND the favorite wins.

It was my understanding when I stated my $100. exacta that we were working with RS's place bet only vs the exacta of my chalk & longshot (with the longshot to place) bet straight-underneath. We were both talking about the longshot running in second place, I thought.

I could be wrong, I had no thought of a win bet at all.

[blackthroatedwind]

It was my understanding when I stated my $100. exacta that we were working with RS's place bet only vs the exacta of my chalk & longshot (with the longshot to place) bet straight-underneath. We were both talking about the longshot running in second place, I thought.

I could be wrong, I had no thought of a win bet at all.

Right....there is no win bet involved....and in the case Randall gave it's redundant as it is in both plays.

Just $2 to place vs. a $2 exacta below the favorite. That's it...nothing more.

[blackthroatedwind]

My standard play is $50 to win and $25 ex. box with my key horse and my second choice in the race. Or $25 ex. keying my horse over 2 horses. I have never understood the bet to win then turn around and key my horse in second only! A place bet is a hedge, i prefer to hedge with an exacta. I am kinda like Andy Beyer in that if am right I want to be really right and if my opion was wrong I didn't deserve to cash, anyhow. Perfect example is today in the last race @G.P my key horse #4 @ 7-1 paid only $7.40 to place, even with a 56-1 winning the race. One more example is my friend @ the OTB I attend is a $200 WP guy. He refuses to play an exacta. There are alot times that my $100 cashes for alot more than his $200 place bets. P.S. I'm really looking forward to the Youbet shows Andy!!


Basically I completely agree with you. You need to get paid when you're right...it's as simple as that.

Thanks.

I bet the third horse in that race at Gulfstream....but would have been happy if he had run second to your horse. Frustrating winner.

[ArlJim78]

Right....there is no win bet involved....and in the case Randall gave it's redundant as it is in both plays.

Just $2 to place vs. a $2 exacta below the favorite. That's it...nothing more.
Finally, this is the essense of the matter. The idea is meant to question the validity of place betting vs the exacta scheme. The win part is redundant.

[Dunbar]

Let's do the data going forward. I want to have a fresh outlook on this and not expect the data to go in a certain direction.

If the sample sizes are equal, it's better to go forward. Less chance to introduce a bias about starting point.

btw, randall, I really like the way you've spelled out exactly what you are doing, including the sample size!

I'm going to bet on the place bet being more profitable. I've missed where this whole discussion took place (so to speak), but I don't see a betting bias that would overcome the generally bigger takeout for exactas.

--Dunbar

[golfer]

I appreciate the passion involved in this study, but here is my question which pertains to betting style: how much does betting a key horse to win and place, as opposed to straight win, effect your ROI? Lately, I've been playing win and place on horses over 10-1. While it "feels" better to collect a place bet when the horse finishes second, over the longer term, how much money am I losing by not putting the whole wager in the win pool (or am I better off with win and place?). In attempting to follow these threads, I believe Andy is on the side of win only. I know the only real way to answer this is to keep track of my key horses and their win/place payouts, but just looking for observations...

[randallscott35]

AS TO ANDY's latest post....This clears it up.

So a horse that finishes first: I get the place for and she gets nothing for it as she just has a win bet that is cancelled against mine.

And when a horse finishes second, I get the place....Then the fave is checked and any further calculation is made....So yes the win side isn't counted---but the PLACE side will be counted for a longshot of 10-1 or more winning or finishing second. Cool? This is correct.

[brianwspencer]

AS TO ANDY's latest post....This clears it up.

So a horse that finishes first: I get the place for and she gets nothing for it as she just has a win bet that is cancelled against mine.

And when a horse finishes second, I get the place....Then the fave is checked and any further calculation is made....So yes the win side isn't counted---but the PLACE side will be counted for a longshot of 10-1 or more winning or finishing second. Cool? This is correct.

Which is what I did the first time.

The exacta is going to blow the place money out of the water long-term.

[SentToStud]

...

Just $2 to place vs. a $2 exacta below the favorite. That's it...nothing more.

Like others, I also appreciate this thread and I'm interested to see if the results confirn what I believe.

My spin for "round 2" would be to drop the favorite from the exacta and study two $1 exactas using the 10-1 under the 2nd and 3rd favorites. In theory (and application, I believe) the 10-1 would be attractive at that price and playable due to the favorite being a percieved bad chalk.

But I'm still very interested in seeing the outcome. Thanks to all working on this.

[randallscott35]

Which is what I did the first time.

The exacta is going to blow the place money out of the water long-term.

NO, what you did the first time was only consider when the longshot finished 2nd, not when they finished first. That's the key difference.

[Grits]

AS TO ANDY's latest post....This clears it up.

So a horse that finishes first: I get the place for and she gets nothing for it as she just has a win bet that is cancelled against mine.

And when a horse finishes second, I get the place....Then the fave is checked and any further calculation is made....So yes the win side isn't counted---but the PLACE side will be counted for a longshot of 10-1 or more winning or finishing second. Cool? This is correct.

Good morning RS, I hope you're gonna have a good Thursday. I began burning brain cells late last night. I was getting a little confused. (As someone indicated in the esoteric thread, "she's from the south" so apparently, they don't think my brain is fully developed. And that's fine. That kind of thinking doesn't bother me.)

You are correct, you get the place only, for your horse. Regardless, whether he wins or not, you have only place money involved for $2.

Now, all I have is the exacta of 1-2. If my horses DO NOT run 1-2, with the chalk winning, and the longshot running second. I get nothing.

Your belief being that place betting and running second with a longshot is more profitable than my belief of no place betting, instead put the horse in an exacta with the postime chalk.

[Grits]

Finally, this is the essense of the matter. The idea is meant to question the validity of place betting vs the exacta scheme.

Yes, ArlJ. that is exactly, the purpose of the study and the "heart of the matter." (As Don Henley sings.)

[brianwspencer]

NO, what you did the first time was only consider when the longshot finished 2nd, not when they finished first. That's the key difference.

I don't really care, and don't want to argue in an otherwise awesome thread.

But yes, that is actually exactly what I did. Any 10-1+ shot running in the place money (also known as top two) was credited to the place team, and any 10-1+ horse running second to the favorite was credited to the exacta team.

It's fine, I don't care -- you'll see what I mean when you start counting it up yourself. I've had the concept right all along.

From my original post:


I used Randall's original idea, of 10-1+ shot running in the top two versus a 10-1+ shot running behind the favorite (any favorite, lukewarm or odds-on) in the race.

[ArlJim78]

Like others, I also appreciate this thread and I'm interested to see if the results confirn what I believe.

My spin for "round 2" would be to drop the favorite from the exacta and study two $1 exactas using the 10-1 under the 2nd and 3rd favorites. In theory (and application, I believe) the 10-1 would be attractive at that price and playable due to the favorite being a percieved bad chalk.

But I'm still very interested in seeing the outcome. Thanks to all working on this.
this is the approach I take, especially with larger fields.

[Payson Dave]

Great great thread...I am a WP bettor for the most part...however if the study (with a big enough sample) shows a higher ROI by doing an exacta wager underneath the favorite then that would be great information to have...I'd love to see the study expanded to include horses at 5/1...what percent of races are won by horse over 5/1 vs horses under 5/1....
Seems that the lower odds would increase the both the number of place tickets and exacta tickets cashed...but the question is not how many tickets get cashed but rather it is which strategy produces the higher ROI.

[Thunder Gulch]

I think this is setup to fail by design. The favorites are often underlays on top, so the only exactas that will count are going to be low mutuels, while the place payouts can capture all instances where a favorite finishes out of the money. I like the "exacta as a place bet" in theory, but I think you'd come out ahead by wheeling a few contenders over your longshot. Of course, that really makes it tough to follow for your purposes.

[brianwspencer]

I think this is setup to fail by design. The favorites are often underlays on top, so the only exactas that will count are going to be low mutuels, while the place payouts can capture all instances where a favorite finishes out of the money. I like the "exacta as a place bet" in theory, but I think you'd come out ahead by wheeling a few contenders over your longshot. Of course, that really makes it tough to follow for your purposes.

It won't matter when the numbers are added up.

[estreetposse]

You are both betting $2 on a 10-1 horse to WIN. For s**ts and giggles, let's call him the 10 horse.

Now one of you is also betting $2 to place on the 10,

and the other is betting a $2 exacta: Favorite/10

Is this correct or am I still confused from reading this 3x?:confused:

If you both like the 10, why not take another $2 to put on top o' the fav.
I know its Monopoly $$$ on here but what would you do in the real world?

[Grits]

You are both betting $2 on a 10-1 horse to WIN. For s**ts and giggles, let's call him the 10 horse.

Now one of you is also betting $2 to place on the 10,

and the other is betting a $2 exacta: Favorite/10

Is this correct or am I still confused from reading this 3x?:confused:

Yep, still confused.

[Payson Dave]

I'm pretty sure that your understanding of the question is correct...now we need to see which strategy is better...(makes you more money)


You are both betting $2 on a 10-1 horse to WIN. For s**ts and giggles, let's call him the 10 horse.

Now one of you is also betting $2 to place on the 10,

and the other is betting a $2 exacta: Favorite/10

Is this correct or am I still confused from reading this 3x?:confused:

If you both like the 10, why not take another $2 to put on top o' the fav.
I know its Monopoly $$$ on here but what would you do in the real world?

[estreetposse]

No the original arguement was what was a better strategy in betting. Say you like a horse 10-1. Will you make more money over time betting the horse to win/place, or betting the horse to win and then betting the horse underneath in an exacta with the favorite in the race.


So if I make these bets every race over the course of the meet, Which bet will turn the highest $$$?

[estreetposse]

Thought so, Thanks!!!

:)

[SniperSB23]

Sorry if I missed this but how are you handling cases when the top two horses are both over 10-1? Are you counting the place money for both horses and counting it as two races in the sample? Presumably the best place payouts for a longshot will occur when another longshot is in the top two with it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Sorry if I missed this but how are you handling cases when the top two horses are both over 10-1? Are you counting the place money for both horses and counting it as two races in the sample? Presumably the best place payouts for a longshot will occur when another longshot is in the top two with it.


Yes...any horse that is over 10-1 and finishes first or second counts. There are two possible examples in any race.

[randallscott35]

DAY ONE MARCH 8, 2007

Gulfstream: Race 6-- Grits: 24.40 RS: 31.80
Race 8-- Grits: 39.80 RS: 50.00
Race 9-- Grits: 38.20 RS: 55.00

Aqueduct: Race 1-- Grits: 14.00 RS: 6.50
Race 7-- Grits: 36.60 RS: 48.80

Santa Anita: Race 5--Grits: 26.60 RS: 37.80

DAY ONE FINAL: Grits- 179.60 RS: 229.90
Total Races: 6

[paisjpq]

DAY ONE MARCH 8, 2007 Mods you can now move this to the Contest Forum--Thank you



thanks for the permission there chief...you might want to ask me nicer in future.

[randallscott35]

thanks for the permission there chief...you might want to ask me nicer in future.

Huh, I thanked the mods on the front end and the back end of the thread. VT cold getting to you.

[paisjpq]

Huh, I thanked the mods on the front end and the back end of the thread. VT cold getting to you.

saying thank you does not mean that the order wasn't a tad on the rude side.

[randallscott35]

saying thank you does not mean that the order wasn't a tad on the rude side.
You have to be kidding me, but I didn't mean it that way at all.. Leave it in the Paddock then, I was simply moving it so it didn't clutter up the main board. Jesus people are touchy on this board. WTF

[Antitrust32]

counting the win bets takes away from this report in my opinion.

should just be

$2 Place vs $2 Straight exacta (fav over the 10-1 and over shot)

[randallscott35]

counting the win bets takes away from this report in my opinion.

should just be

$2 Place vs $2 Straight exacta (fav over the 10-1 and over shot)

Anti, that's what it is. They cancel each other out. I'm just using both to give an accurate representation of the total you would get back had you done 2WP vs. the other way.

[Antitrust32]

Anti, that's what it is. They cancel each other out. I'm just using both to give an accurate representation of the total you would get back had you done 2WP vs. the other way.


thats fine.... you are off to a good start

[randallscott35]

thats fine.... you are off to a good start
Maybe, I actually think I'm going to lose. Watching some of the probables in exacta payouts, it will be close. Not nearly as confident as yesterday. Grits and I have a small wager on this to be paid up in Toga. As Beth and Kev can attest, whenever I bet one person I lose.

[Antitrust32]

yeah, i personally feel that you will lose.. no offense ;)

but you got off to a good start!

[Antitrust32]

but hey... win or lose this is still very informative and maybe will change the way you wager to get a better ROI

[randallscott35]

yeah, i personally feel that you will lose.. no offense ;)

but you got off to a good start!
None taken. LOL, its for fun after all.

[randallscott35]

Complete day one standings now posted.


Side Note: A thought. When two 10-1 horses or higher finish 1-2 we are assuming that we both have the winner. Technically we should rotate each time that happens, b/c the place bet will be higher or lower depending on which horse over 10-1 we actually had...Maybe it all comes out in the wash. I guess it will b/c we will just keep on assuming that we both have the winner.

[Grits]

RS, I'm going to say this ONE MORE TIME ONLY.

This study is not about/or to include ANY win wager, NONE. Don't show a thing about wins or win payouts. Forget that completely. The study is about the following: Money wagered to place on a longshot verses money wagered on, instead, a straight exacta play.

Randall: Betting $2. on a longshot at 10/1 or better. And posting the place figure paid out only.

Grits: Betting a $2 straight exacta with the chalk on top and the longshot at 10/1 or better underneath. If my horses don't run 1-2. I get nothing.
************************************************** ****

The races that need viewing are races where:

(1) chalk has won and a longshot at 10/1 or better has run underneath.

(2) where a longshot at 10/1 or better has won the race and we are using the place payout.

(3) where a longshot at 10/1 or better has run second, and again we are using the place payout.

Is anyone misunderstanding the study, or the wagers? If any of today's results shows win amounts remove them, please. They are not inclusive to the study, and therefore confusing.

Now, what am I missing, anything? Randall, Andy, help me out ok.

[Grits]

Complete day one standings now posted.


Side Note: A thought. When two 10-1 horses or higher finish 1-2 we are assuming that we both have the winner. Technically we should rotate each time that happens, b/c the place bet will be higher or lower depending on which horse over 10-1 we actually had...Maybe it all comes out in the wash. I guess it will b/c we will just keep on assuming that we both have the winner.

No, that's not a race you need to even look at. That's not the scenario.

[randallscott35]

RS, I'm going to say this ONE MORE TIME ONLY.

This study is not about/or to include ANY win wager, NONE. Don't show a thing about wins or win payouts. Forget that completely. The study is about the following: Money wagered to place on a longshot verses money wagered on, instead, a straight exacta play.

Randall: Betting $2. on a longshot at 10/1 or better. And posting the place figure paid out only.

Grits: Betting a $2 straight exacta with the chalk on top and the longshot at 10/1 or better underneath. If my horses don't run 1-2. I get nothing.
************************************************** ****

The only races that need viewing are races where chalk has won and a longshot at 10/1 or better has run underneath. THAT one result will give us the data we need for the study.

Is anyone misunderstanding the study, or the wagers? If any of today's results shows win amounts remove them, please. They are not inclusive to the study, and therefore confusing.

Now, what am I missing, anything? Randall, Andy, help me out ok.

Jeez Grits, we all know it has nothing to do with the win end of it. AS I posted in the thread when asked I am posting the total b/c the technical nature of the bet is WP vs. Win+Back Ex....Thus I'm trying to show what the totals would be in reality....It is obviously still just the place wager coming into play. Look at the difference in the totals, they are all correct. There are smart people on this board, they understand that even though I am adding in the win(for BOTH of us) the key to the study is the place side.

[SniperSB23]

For it to be an accurate trial any race where a 10-1 shot runs first or second needs to count. Randall gets place money every time whether the horse runs first or second. If the favorite finishes on top of the 10-1 shot then you get the exacta. Otherwise you get nothing.

[randallscott35]

For it to be an accurate trial any race where a 10-1 shot runs first or second needs to count. Randall gets place money every time whether the horse runs first or second. If the favorite finishes on top of the 10-1 shot then you get the exacta. Otherwise you get nothing.

Good question which I will pose to Andy. My feeling is that technically, we would only be betting one horse in the race each, so even if the 10-1's ran 1-2, we'd only have one of them.

[Sightseek]

Maybe, I actually think I'm going to lose. Watching some of the probables in exacta payouts, it will be close. Not nearly as confident as yesterday. Grits and I have a small wager on this to be paid up in Toga. As Beth and Kev can attest, whenever I bet one person I lose.

The way this is set up it looks that way because you can only count yours when Grits can as well (unless I'm confused).

It seems to me, and why I bet WP, is that your chances of being able to cash a ticket will occur more often than if you're only betting the chalk over the longshot you like best in the exacta. Of course you could always solve this problem by approaching your bet like DaHoss aforementioned.

[Grits]

You all need to remove my quote from your post as I did not include both race result scenarios. I have edited my post.

[SniperSB23]

You all need to remove my quote from your post as I did not include both race result scenarios. I have edited my post.

It still isn't right. You also need to count races where the 10-1 shot finishes second and a horse other than the chalk finishes on top. Those will actually be where the best place payouts will occur.

[Grits]

It still isn't right. You also need to count races where the 10-1 shot finishes second and a horse other than the chalk finishes on top. Those will actually be where the best place payouts will occur.

Sniper, indeed, you're correct. Anthing else?

[randallscott35]

It still isn't right. You also need to count races where the 10-1 shot finishes second and a horse other than the chalk finishes on top. Those will actually be where the best place payouts will occur.
Those are figured in of course....Just when its 10-1 over 10-1 we are both assuming the winner rather than the place horse(just b/c its easier-- and over time the place payout will go either way so it balances)....Mind you as I said before we only have 1 horse in each race, so you can't keep both 10-1's. And I'm saying that from my point of view where your method would help me....AS I said before I wan't it to be right, not to win.

[SniperSB23]

Sniper, indeed, you're correct. Anthing else?

Yeah, everything above the asterisks looks good. I agree that there is no point in including the win amounts since they would count on both sides anyways under the scenario.

[randallscott35]

Grits,

Everything is right with it. If you don't want to be involved at all, you don't have to....The differential is going to be exactly the same whether the win is figured in or not. Check my numbers today and you will see that. A chimp can figure that the differential will prove which side is the better bet....but the total payout is going to be shown.

[Grits]

Here's the post revised.

RS, I'm going to say this ONE MORE TIME ONLY.

This study is not about/or to include ANY win wager, NONE. Don't show a thing about wins or win payouts. Forget that completely. The study is about the following: Money wagered to place on a longshot verses money wagered on, instead, a straight exacta play.

Randall: Betting $2. on a longshot at 10/1 or better. And posting the place figure paid out only.

Grits: Betting a $2 straight exacta with the chalk on top and the longshot at 10/1 or better underneath. If my horses don't run 1-2. I get nothing.
************************************************** ****

The races that need viewing are races where:

(1) chalk has won and a longshot at 10/1 or better has run underneath.

(2) where a longshot at 10/1 or better has won the race and we are using the place payout.

(3) where a longshot at 10/1 or better has run second, and again we are using the place payout.

Is anyone misunderstanding the study, or the wagers? If any of today's results shows win amounts remove them, please. They are not inclusive to the study, and therefore confusing.

Now, what am I missing, anything? Randall, Andy, help me out ok.

[SniperSB23]

Those are figured in of course....Just when its 10-1 over 10-1 we are both assuming the winner rather than the place horse(just b/c its easier-- and over time the place payout will go either way so it balances)....Mind you as I said before we only have 1 horse in each race, so you can't keep both 10-1's. And I'm saying that from my point of view where your method would help me....AS I said before I wan't it to be right, not to win.

I don't know if that is the correct way to do it. I think the fundamental assumption is since we are counting every case where a 10-1 or higher shot runs top two that every 10-1 shot is being bet by you to place and by grits under the favorite in the exacta. In the case where two longshots hit you would have hit twice while grits would have hit zero times. Check post #88 on here. I think that is what Andy was saying.

[randallscott35]

Well Snipes, Andy agrees with you.

Yes...here is how it works....ANY race where a 10-1 or more finishes first or second counts. There are two column you are computing....column 1 is variable X which equals the place price which will ALWAYS be of some value.....column 2 is Y which equals zero if the horse won or finished second to anyone other than the favorite and Y equals the exacta price only when the horse finished second AND the favorite won.

Now, if two 10-1 plus horses run first and second they both count as the race is effectively TWO examples. Do not think of these as races....just examples for the study. In this case, obviously, there will be two different X numbers and Y will equal zero for both.

Thus it looks like I have to add to my total for today and the study will go much quicker b/c rather than races, it will be total outcomes for longshots 10-1 or over in the win or place spot...

[randallscott35]

I don't know if that is the correct way to do it. I think the fundamental assumption is since we are counting every case where a 10-1 or higher shot runs top two that every 10-1 shot is being bet by you to place and by grits under the favorite in the exacta. In the case where two longshots hit you would have hit twice while grits would have hit zero times. Check post #88 on here. I think that is what Andy was saying.

Yes, Andy convinced me that is the case. Look at my last post. I am going back now to fix today's data.

This study will fly. Thanks Snipes

[SniperSB23]

Yes, Andy convinced me that is the case. Look at my last post. I am going back now to fix today's data.

This study will fly. Thanks Snipes

Thanks for tracking the data, I'm curious to see how it pans out.

[randallscott35]

DAY ONE MARCH 8, 2007 PERFECT FINAL STANDINGS (LOL-at last)

Gulfstream: Race 6-- Grits: 24.40 RS: 31.80
Race 8-- Grits: 39.80 RS: 50.00
Race 9-- Grits: 38.20 RS: 55.00

Aqueduct: Race 1-- Grits: 14.00 RS: 6.50
Race 7-- Grits: 36.60 RS: 48.80+9.10=57.90

Santa Anita: Race 5--Grits: 26.60 RS: 37.80

++ show where multiple 10-1's were figured in as to Snipes point.

An increase of 9.10 due to the new scoring.

DAY ONE FINAL: Grits- 179.60 RS: 239.00
Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (7)

[randallscott35]

Thanks for tracking the data, I'm curious to see how it pans out.

I'm just glad you pointed that out. Definitely improved the chances of place coming out on top even if marginally.

Not only that, it will make it go faster. I think it will be done within 20 racing days.

[Grits]

RS, in posting the results, at the bottom where noting the number of longshots ITM, can you make note of the exacta wagers that hit, as well?

[Payson Dave]

Just thinking out loud here....
If you bet WP and your horse runs first or second you will always cash the place wager.
If you bet W & Chalk/your selection, and your horse runs first or second then you will probably cash your exacta ticket about 33% of the time...(assuming that favorites win a third of the time)...
Doesn't it come down to... the average exacta payouts that you cash need to be more than 3 times the average place payouts that you cash???...

[Grits]

Just thinking out loud here....
If you bet WP and your horse runs first or second you will always cash the place wager.
If you bet W & Chalk/your selection, and your horse runs first or second then you will probably cash your exacta ticket about 33% of the time...(assuming that favorites win a third of the time)...
Doesn't it come down to... the average exacta payouts that you cash need to be more than 3 times the average place payouts that you cash???...

I would figure that to be right. In all of this though, I add that I do not handicap for a living, day in, day out. But, I've been a student of the game for a good, long while. Others that do, may be able to agree or disagree with you Dave.

I've walked in and created a firestorm it seems. That's not always a good thing, sometimes, yes, sometimes, no.

[Payson Dave]

Grits,
I sure don't see this thread as a firestorm...in fact imho this is a great thread that I'm looking forward to seeing more results on...I would be surprised if there are many people on here that see this as a firestorm...

...once again imho... wagering stategy is just as important as handicapping ability...

[blackthroatedwind]

Just, please, stop including the redundant win bets. It pads the totals while skewing the difference. What you want to know is how much more you will win playing the exacta in percentage terms. Adding the same bet to each total will alter the results.

[Payson Dave]

Just, please, stop including the redundant win bets. It pads the totals while skewing the difference. What you want to know is how much more you will win playing the exacta in percentage terms. Adding the same bet to each total will alter the results.


Not sure that I completely agree....I think that what is important is the delta between the two stategies....I don't think that including the win bet will change that delta...both stategies include the win bet....including it or not including it should not matter one way or the other....if i'm missing something please explain.

[blackthroatedwind]

Not sure that I completely agree....I think that what is important is the delta between the two stategies....I don't think that including the win bet will change that delta...both stategies include the win bet....including it or not including it should not matter one way or the other....if i'm missing something please explain.

First of all....why bother with the calculation?

But secondly, while I agree that the total play is the correct way to make the bet, the question is which method produces more and by how much. Let's say, for arguments sake, we get 300 examples. The totals will be around $4000 for the place vs. exactas. The win bets will add roughly $10K to EACH total. Suppose it is then $14k vs. $14.4K ( either way ) or roughly 2.9%. However, what the results would accurately show, but couldn't be easily determined, is that the exacta or place bet increased THAT return by 10%.

[Payson Dave]

First of all....why bother with the calculation?

But secondly, while I agree that the total play is the correct way to make the bet, the question is which method produces more and by how much. Let's say, for arguments sake, we get 300 examples. The totals will be around $4000 for the place vs. exactas. The win bets will add roughly $10K to EACH total. Suppose it is then $14k vs. $14.4K ( either way ) or roughly 2.9%. However, what the results would accurately show, but couldn't be easily determined, is that the exacta or place bet increased THAT return by 10%.

You are right...the ROI for these place wagers versus the ROI for these exacta wagers is really what is most important...
Both the place wagers and the chalk/selection exacta wagers are basically insurance bets...It will be interesting to me to see which one is the better of the two.

[blackthroatedwind]

You are right...the ROI for these place wagers versus the ROI for these exacta wagers is really what is most important...
Both the place wagers and the chalk/selection exacta wagers are basically insurance bets...It will be interesting to me to see which one is the better of the two.


Right, it seems like the heart of the question is " which is the better hedge ".

[Grits]

Just, please, stop including the redundant win bets. It pads the totals while skewing the difference. What you want to know is how much more you will win playing the exacta in percentage terms. Adding the same bet to each total will alter the results.

I agree with this, in that we're looking at two apples, though different varieties.

Let's don't throw kumquats in the basket with the apples, it muddles things.

[pmacdaddy]

After reading this thread and thinking I understood the consensus, I took a look at the results and got promptly confused.
I believe it is because win $ are factored in.

If the Win wager is removed (as it is equal between scenarios and therefore a wash) the results will more clearly show when the place wager paid and the exacts wager "failed".

When our horse runs 1st or 2nd and the exacta with fav is not hit, the Place player will have earnings and exacta player will have a zero for that race.

Under the current method, you need to back out Win payouts to see that the exacta failed in the cases where our horse ran 1st. Without the win $ in, these will stick right out.

In any case this is very interesting.

Next I vote for the Triple Partial Wheel versus Exacta Box study...

[Grits]

Seems as though I have picked a perfect time to not bet to place anymore. Thats 4 straight seconds, one at 10-1,6-1,14-1, and the last at 25-1. Should have had each exacta but I am not playing too hard today and am just betting to win, although the favorite has only won one of those races. This game sucks.

I was beginning to wonder if anyone around here made FLAT WIN bets! This is good to know.

It's a great game, it just sucks when we're not cashing.

[randallscott35]

From now on just the place bets vs. the exactas will be tracked...not that including the win made a difference as the differential btw the two totals is what matters....But whatever I'll go with the crowd. That's the way it will be posted starting today.

Grits would also like to me to keep track of how many exactas occur so I will do that as well.

[randallscott35]

DAY TWO MARCH 9, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$59.40

Gulfstream: Race 4-- PL: 15.40
Gulfstream: Race 7-- PL: 19.80

Aqueduct: Race 6--PL: 8.60

Santa Anita:Race 7--PL: 12.00
Santa Anita:Race 8--PL: 11.80 + 17.00

TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $14.00 PL $158.00
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$144.00

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (13)
Total Exactas so far: 1

A 12 Furlong Race for sure but I broke out of the gate like Caller One and Grits---well let's just say she broke like Evening Attire...Of course Caller One won't run 12 panels and EA just won his last race---bad analogy.

[Grits]

RS, could you go back and edit the first days results? As everything reads right now, from two days, its a mess. ( I still maintain we would have gotten what we needed without Snipers figures, they are very confusing to the entire study.)

The columns would serve better, titled Exactas--Longshots, rather than our names. This would help anyone in following the study. No one cares who we are. LOL

We need a daily total for each column, with cumulative figures brought forward at the top of each new day's figures, rather than simply "RS's carryover" in green ink, with no figure posted regarding the exacta amount. The cumulative figures have got to be added as they are most important to the study. (Or if you like, place the cumulative figures under the daily totals at the end of the daily report.) Somewhere.

[randallscott35]

RS, could you go back and edit the first days results? As everything reads right now, from two days, its a mess. ( I still maintain we would have gotten what we needed without Snipers figures, they are very confusing to the entire study.)

The columns would serve better, titled Exactas--Longshots, rather than our names. This would help anyone in following the study. No one cares who we are. LOL

We need a daily total for each column, with cumulative figures brought forward at the top of each new day's figures, rather than simply "RS's carryover" in green ink, with no figure posted regarding the exacta amount. The cumulative figures have got to be added as they are most important to the study. (Or if you like, place the cumulative figures under the daily totals at the end of the daily report.) Somewhere.
I changed the name aspect which I agree with since it doesn't matter who we are. The differential from day 1 is correct and I added the exacta column you asked for yesterday. The exacta amount will be posted every day as Exacta next to a race where it comes into play. There was no exacta you hit today, therefore you didn't see it. I will also add a cummulative with both sets going forward..Therefore, the exacta total was 14.00 going into today and the place was 73.40...These are good additions. RS Give me 10 minutes and it will be updated.

PS- The columns are a bit better now. This isn't excel you know. Haha

[SniperSB23]

RS, could you go back and edit the first days results? As everything reads right now, from two days, its a mess. ( I still maintain we would have gotten what we needed without Snipers figures, they are very confusing to the entire study.)

The columns would serve better, titled Exactas--Longshots, rather than our names. This would help anyone in following the study. No one cares who we are. LOL

We need a daily total for each column, with cumulative figures brought forward at the top of each new day's figures, rather than simply "RS's carryover" in green ink, with no figure posted regarding the exacta amount. The cumulative figures have got to be added as they are most important to the study. (Or if you like, place the cumulative figures under the daily totals at the end of the daily report.) Somewhere.

Um, no. It would have proven absolutely nothing without "my figures". All you would have proven is that the exactas pay out better than the place bets when you neglect to include half of the best place payouts. I think we all already knew that.

[Grits]

Grits, I honestly feel like I'm going in circles here. I can't make everybody happy. I changed the name aspect which I agree with since it doesn't matter who we are. The differential from day 1 is correct and I added the exacta column you asked for yesterday. The exacta amount will be posted every day as Exacta next to a race where it comes into play. There was no exacta you hit today, therefore you didn't see it. I will also add a cummulative with both sets going forward..Therefore, the exacta total was 14.00 going into today and the place was 73.40..This is the best I can do. I think it works, and looks good. And for what we need to do makes sense. RS Give me 10 minutes and it will be updated.

Good-to-go.

[randallscott35]

Good-to-go.

Great, I want to make you happy. Nothing like a woman scorned.

[randallscott35]

Couple of thoughts about what it might look like going forward.

The interesting thing to me is that looking at exacta probables today, that side can make up ground much faster. A 3-1 fave over a 25-1 shot will be a big payout...Plus the disadvantage for the place side is that the favorite's place pool will pretty much always be the largest thus diluting the place payout on the longshot...The problem for the exacta side is, even if the fave wins 30% of the time, that 30% must be followed by a longshot so the number of times that happens could be as few as 8% or lower. Will that be enough to make up the grinding profit of the place bets. We'll see but this will be fun....Tomorrow should bring at least 15 new entries as there are more races and fuller fields.

[Grits]

My mentor always told me to always look out for number one. And try not to step in number two. Now those are words to live by.

This man's a teacher DaHoss, and he teaches me well. He leaves nothing unturned.

[randallscott35]

This man's a teacher DaHoss, and he teaches me well. He leaves nothing unturned.

Haha. For the record Grits, I'm a teacher as well.

--good one by the way Dahoss

[blackthroatedwind]

Couple of thoughts about what it might look like going forward.

The interesting thing to me is that looking at exacta probables today, that side can make up ground much faster. A 3-1 fave over a 25-1 shot will be a big payout.


Pretty prescient comment considering what happened in today's 5th at Santa Anita. Is there something we need to know about you?

[Grits]

Pretty prescient comment considering what happened in today's 5th at Santa Anita. Is there something we need to know about you?

You think that's good, look at the 4th at Aqueduct. Two dead-heated under the chalk. One of 'em's priceless. LOLOLOL

Gp worked too.

[blackthroatedwind]

On a rough look it seemed like the " contest " drew very close to even today.

It's a fun contest and, IMO, as good a learning experience as I have ever seen on a message board. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the kind of stuff that helps everybody be a better player. It's just what racing needs.

[Grits]

ANYTIME, and I do mean ANYTIME that I am included in the same sentence with EVENING ATTIRE, I will be just fine. Being off a little slow has sure worked well for that fine fella, and it will for me.

I've got today's figures but RS does the posting.

[randallscott35]

DAY THREE MARCH 10, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$144.00

Gulfstream: Race 4-- PL: 6.20 EX: 35.60
Gulfstream: Race 8-- PL: 16.20

Aqueduct: Race 4--PL: 9.80 EX: 43.80
Aqueduct: Race 8--PL: 11.40

Santa Anita:Race 5--PL: 17.20 EX: 109.20 (The Fave By A Mere 3k in the pool)
Santa Anita:Race 6--PL: 9.20

TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $202.60 PL $214.00
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$11.40

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (19)
Total Exactas so far: 4

Total Races So Far: 82

An excellent day for the exactas(a.k.a. Grits).

[Grits]

That's a fine report RS, so neat and orderly, includes everything. Sweetheart you outdid yourself. Today, we're hangin' tight.

[randallscott35]

That's a fine report RS, so neat and orderly, includes everything. Sweetheart you outdid yourself. Today, we're hangin' tight.

Glad it met your approval. Quite a day for you. Helped a lot that very few longshots ended up on top today.

[randallscott35]

Pretty prescient comment considering what happened in today's 5th at Santa Anita. Is there something we need to know about you?


:D ...Yeah, I wasn't very good in Algebra but I got A's in Prob/Stat b/c I was a gambler since I was 12 years old...In fact, when I took the class, all of the examples I had to create involved football betting and horse racing. My teacher who was mean, also a thalidomide baby I think, did get a kick out of it.

[Grits]

RS, with tomorrow's totals, let's begin to add the total number of races with the cumulative totals. It's easy at this point to go back three days; or else, when we get to the end of this thing, you'll be going back through an endless number of pages for counting to get the number of races involved.

[randallscott35]

RS, with tomorrow's totals, let's begin to add the total number of races with the cumulative totals. It's easy at this point to go back three days; or else, when we get to the end of this thing, you'll be going back through an endless number of pages for counting to get the number of races involved.

The total number of races overall....The number of instances are there in ( )...How does the number of races overall matter. I mean I'll do it if you want but I can't see how its worthwhile.

[Grits]

The total number of races overall....The number of instances are there in ( )...How does the number of races overall matter. I mean I'll do it if you want but I can't see how its worthwhile.

RS, in all gathering of data, whether it is for horses, humans, rats, or grapefruit. You have base figures at end that form/draw the conclusions of that data.

How do you think studies are concluded in medicine?

By clinical trial on X number of patients. The number of ( )instances( ) are drawn among the patients participating in the trial. That number is listed in summary at the conclusion of said trial, regardless, whether it goes on for 6 weeks, 6 months, or 6 years.

An example of this would be . . . let's say, the clinical trial of VIAGRA. Now, all of the men in the study of this remarkable, life altering medication are listed in the trial.

X overall patients with ED participating in clinical trial

X patients given the drug--X given a placebo (dudes robbed, still)

X patients with no side effects (living large)

X patients with heart attacks

X patients suffering vision problems, ie, blindness

X poor dudes showing up at the ER with their 4 hour or more dilemma, lost regarding how to fix THAT.


***That's why a summary has details, it's all worthwhile. And I do hope those reading have a sense of humor--life would be dull without one.

[randallscott35]

You're nuts grtis but I will now have a column for that as well....By the time this is over I will be charting Gray horses that get in the exacta.

[Grits]

You're nuts grtis but I will now have a column for that as well....By the time this is over I will be charting Gray horses that get in the exacta.

Man, deliver me. Add it in.

Not a thing nuts about me. I swear I've seen two people on this board with a sense of humor. Pillow Pants and GCK, or whatever those initials were. You guys need to laugh now and then. geez.

[brianwspencer]

Man, deliver me. Add it in.

Not a thing nuts about me. I swear I've seen two people on this board with a sense of humor. Pillow Pants and GCK, or whatever those initials were. You guys need to laugh now and then. geez.

I'm still trying to figure out if you're joking with all of the requests, like just to see how far Randall would go. Just to see how many things he would incorporate in.

Which in itself would be cruel and entertaining, so I hope that's not what you're doing :D

[Grits]

I'm still trying to figure out if you're joking with all of the requests, like just to see how far Randall would go. Just to see how many things he would incorporate in.

Which in itself would be cruel and entertaining, so I hope that's not what you're doing :D

I don't jack people around, Brian. Like,--that's ugly. Though, if I did, it sure would have, not one thing to do with a horseracing wagering study.

So, if RS likes, knock yourself out bud, sift through pages and pages for a tally of races, at end. Anything with definition and purpose has background and base. That's served me well in business, thus far.

[pmacdaddy]

Man, deliver me. Add it in.

Not a thing nuts about me. I swear I've seen two people on this board with a sense of humor. Pillow Pants and GCK, or whatever those initials were. You guys need to laugh now and then. geez.
There's nothing funny about statistics.

[Grits]

There's nothing funny about statistics.

Let me explain, the comment came upon the heels of my discussion regarding gathering data, clinical trials and Viagra.

No more humor, I understand now, forgive my stab.

[pmacdaddy]

Let me explain, the comment came upon the heels of my discussion regarding gathering data, clinical trials and Viagra.

No more humor, I understand now, forgive my stab.
I was just kidding...

I am enjoying your contest and look forward to seeing how it shakes out.

Pat

[Grits]

Good to go, Pmac. I can handle kidding. It's unkindness that rips me.

[randallscott35]

Grits, I find you funny, I don't think you are funny. There is a difference. I want my Jack Daniels with a nice written card from you in Toga when I win.

[Grits]

Grits, I find you funny, I don't think you are funny. There is a difference. I want my Jack Daniels with a nice written card from you in Toga when I win.

'scuse me? Run that one by me again.

[randallscott35]

TODAY

Aqueduct: Race 6--PL: 50.00 (How would you feel betting an 82-1 shot and getting nothing Grits?)

[Grits]

TODAY

Aqueduct: Race 6--PL: 50.00 (How would you feel betting an 82-1 shot and getting nothing Grits?)

G.T.H. (I'll let you figure that one out.) You're such a dog. And you drink Tennessee whiskey to boot.

[randallscott35]

G.T.H. (I'll let you figure that one out.) You're such a dog. And you drink Tennessee whiskey to boot.

Woof Woof. I prefer Tanquerey, but Whiskey from the Southern girl just seems to make sense.

[randallscott35]

What a freaking blood bath for you today Grits.

[Payson Dave]

I was gonna comment earlier that the place wagers were doing pretty good today....but I've learned somewheres along the way to not start counting the money til after the last hand has been played...:D :D

[Grits]

Woof Woof. I prefer Tanquerey, but Whiskey from the Southern girl just seems to make sense.

Good, because I'll not get that close to another bottle of gin. I don't care what names' on the label.

I'll tell you a liquor story from Kentucky, where they're known for their fine bourbons. And you could say it's about free enterprise, as well.

Every year, Keeneland runs the Maker's Mark Mile. It's huge doings, to all those folks around Lexington. In conjunction with the race, Keeneland has "signings" for Maker's Mark Gold Commemorative Edition numbered bottles.

Around 3 or 4 years ago, the Seattle Slew signing was scheduled with Karen and Mickey Taylor, and Jean Cruget beginning at a tick after daylight in the a.m. Well, folks lined up on the apron well before sunrise, lunatics that they are, and WAITED in the cold, in the dark. (I don't do that for anybody, much less the Taylor's.)

Because this was SLEW, you couldn't find a bottle of Maker's Mark within 50 miles of Lexington. Days before the signing, everyone was sold out. I drove to the country, straight up Paris Pike, couldn't find so much as one bottle and I had told someone I'd get them one.

I kept driving and finally stopped, one store owner told me, "damn, I wish I had some more, I could sell every single bottle I could get my hands on."

My wheels started turning and I got to thinking, I'm gonna help this man out. There's no racing today, Keeneland's dark. Hell, I don't have anything else going on, and its a gorgeous day.

So, I got in my car, and drove an hour west. Those folks living in Louisville, they could care less about anything going on in Lexington. They think they're much more Metropolitan than old blueblood Lexington. (And they are.)

Anyway, I motor on west, take the exit off the freeway and walk into one of Louisville's biggest liquor stores and, WHAT to my surprise!!!

Lord have mercy, I counted 52 of those Maker's Mark Gold bottles sittin' right there on and end counter, waitin' for Karen and Mickey Taylor. I opened my cellphone, called my new friend--the one that'd told me an hour earlier how bad he needed more of that whiskey--we struck a deal.

I bought every single bottle they had. They even loaded it in the trunk of my vehicle. Nice people too.

My friend, riding along with me for this short trip, she and I laughed ourselves senseless. The turn-around wasn't Derby time, 2:04 flat, or anything like that. It was more like 3 hours; still, it was one helluva trifecta that made a dark day a blast, and a three week vacation FREE. I made a killing. Can you imagine intelligent folks paying $50 for a bottle of booze? I know . . . I have too, but when you have so many and somebody needs 'em. Its a hoot.

Two southern women, together, when enterprising and helping others, can have more fun than drunk sailors on leave. LOLOLOL

[randallscott35]

I have no idea what that message was about. Are you high?

[Sightseek]

Good, because I'll not get that close to another bottle of gin. I don't care what names' on the label.

I'll tell you a liquor story from Kentucky, where they're known for their fine bourbons. And you could say it's about free enterprise, as well.

Every year, Keeneland runs the Maker's Mark Mile. It's huge doings, to all those folks around Lexington. In conjunction with the race, Keeneland has "signings" for Maker's Mark Gold Commemorative Edition numbered bottles.

Around 3 or 4 years ago, the Seattle Slew signing was scheduled with Karen and Mickey Taylor, and Jean Cruget beginning at a tick after daylight in the a.m. Well, folks lined up on the apron well before sunrise, lunatics that they are, and WAITED in the cold, in the dark. (I don't do that for anybody, much less the Taylor's.)

Because this was SLEW, you couldn't find a bottle of Maker's Mark within 50 miles of Lexington. Days before the signing, everyone was sold out. I drove to the country, straight up Paris Pike, couldn't find so much as one bottle and I had told someone I'd get them one.

I kept driving and finally stopped, one store owner told me, "damn, I wish I had some more, I could sell every single bottle I could get my hands on."

My wheels started turning and I got to thinking, I'm gonna help this man out. There's no racing today, Keeneland's dark. Hell, I don't have anything else going on, and its a gorgeous day.

So, I got in my car, and drove an hour west. Those folks living in Louisville, they could care less about anything going on in Lexington. They think they're much more Metropolitan than old blueblood Lexington. (And they are.)

Anyway, I motor on west, take the exit off the freeway and walk into one of Louisville's biggest liquor stores and, WHAT to my surprise!!!

Lord have mercy, I counted 52 of those Maker's Mark Gold bottles sittin' right there on and end counter, waitin' for Karen and Mickey Taylor. I opened my cellphone, called my new friend--the one that'd told me an hour earlier how bad he needed more of that whiskey--we struck a deal.

I bought every single bottle they had. They even loaded it in the trunk of my vehicle. Nice people too.

My friend, riding along with me for this short trip, she and I laughed ourselves senseless. The turn-around wasn't Derby time, 2:04 flat, or anything like that. It was more like 3 hours; still, it was one helluva trifecta that made a dark day a blast, and a three week vacation FREE. I made a killing. Can you imagine intelligent folks paying $50 for a bottle of booze? I know . . . I have too, but when you have so many and somebody needs 'em. Its a hoot.

My friend, she and I laughed ourselves senseless. Two southern women, together, when enterprising and helping others, can have more fun than drunk sailors on leave. LOLOLOL

Isn't that the truth.

[Grits]

HOUSTON, WE HAVE A PROBLEM!!!


I've seen the totals, and it's a real bad. Couldn't get much worse with 1 horse paying $50 and another paying $36. That's just two, Houston.

[randallscott35]

HOUSTON, WE HAVE A PROBLEM!!!


I've seen the totals, and it's a real bad. Couldn't get much worse with 1 horse paying $50 and another paying $36. That's just two, Houston.

You smelled the front. And then I let him out a bit.

[randallscott35]

DAY FOUR MARCH 11, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$11.40

Finally an active day.

Gulfstream: Race 1-- PL: 13.60
Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 11.80 + 11.80
Gulfstream: Race 3-- PL: 10.40
Gulfstream: Race 5-- PL: 10.20
Gulfstream: Race 7-- PL: 14.00
Gulfstream: Race 9-- PL: 14.60
Gulfstream: Race 10-- PL: 14.20


Aqueduct: Race 4--PL: 15.40
Aqueduct: Race 5--PL: 12.80
Aqueduct: Race 6--PL: 50.00 (How would you feel betting an 82-1 shot and getting nothing Grits?)
Aqueduct: Race 8--PL: 10.20

Santa Anita:Race 5--PL: 14.60
Santa Anita:Race 8--PL: 36.00
Santa Anita:Race 10-- PL: 8.00 EX: 37.80

TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $240.40 PL $461.60
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$221.20

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (33)
Total Exactas so far: 5

Total Races So Far--111

[Grits]

You smelled the front. And then I let him out a bit.

That's crass. I don't do crass, but on rare occasion.

[randallscott35]

That's crass. I don't do crass, but on rare occasion.
I honestly didn't mean it to be...that's the funny thing.

[Grits]

Anyone every heard the standard, "Cry Me A River"? It's a beautiful song and tonight, it's either that or the Wailing Wall in Jerusalem.

The two huge ones are exceedingly rare gifts. Dig deep chasing more like those and see how long you stay afloat. Folks do it daily.

I hold a strong belief, and I have been chastised for doing so, repeatedly. I'll not change my mind on this still. --If one is interested in chasing longshots, the day to go after them is on Sunday. I'm a fervent believer in this.

I'm glad your shots ran well today Randall. I'll just lie here in wait.

Rest well.

[paisjpq]

Anyone every heard the standard, "Cry Me A River"? It's a beautiful song and tonight, it's either that or the Wailing Wall in Jerusalem.

The two huge ones are exceedingly rare gifts. Dig deep chasing more like those and see how long you stay afloat. Folks do it daily.

I hold a strong belief, and I have been chastised for doing so, repeatedly. I'll not change my mind on this still. --If one is interested in chasing longshots, the day to go after them is on Sunday. I'm a fervent believer in this.

I'm glad your shots ran well today Randall. I'll just lie here in wait.

Rest well.
I used to sing it every time I performed...a classic.

[Grits]

Pais, you could accommodate me right now.

I love the Classics, so many of them. Speaking of which, I can't believe no one has figured my song lyrics in name that tune, though this doesn't go quite that far back, its probably been covered as much as any song ever.

[randallscott35]

DAY FIVE MARCH 12, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$221.20

You want a buyout--two Sam Adams drafts at the Spa?

Gulfstream: Race 1-- PL: 10.80
Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 90.40
Gulfstream: Race 4-- PL: 24.00
Gulfstream: Race 6-- PL: 21.20
Gulfstream: Race 8-- PL: 20.60



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $240.40 PL $628.60
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$388.20

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (38) (Just 15% of the contest done-don't fret Grits)
Total Exactas so far: 5


Total Races So Far--120

The Empire Continues to Strike Back

[Grits]

Now, you have to know there ain't a snowball's chance in hell that you would've picked a longshot to win anything remotely close to those odds and paying $310. And in all liklihood, if you've been 'capping as long as you say you have, you wouldn't have had either one of those high price place prices of yesterday either. I've never seen happen--what happened at GP today, which means, it don't come around to often, sweetheart.

INSTANCES, son INSTANCES as you call them.

Now, if you wanna talk to me about the Javier Negrete horse in the 2nd race that went off at 133/1, we'll chat. (The very trainer that I spoke of last night in another thread, the one I've been watching.) His horse ran third paying $37.80 for the show, after leading all the way to the top of the stretch, where he gave way and crossed the wire 4 lengths back to the 1st and 2nd horse.

And by the way that shot only got that chalk by a jump.

Maybe Andy had a tri with All/10/All or All/10/8 I sure hope so, after all the crap he caught in the last 24 hours. Man, no one needs such stuff.

If we have another day on Wednesday like the last couple, I'll cut both wrists, lay down and bleed out. And please . . . see that I'm buried in the Bahamas, next plot over from Anna Nicole. I'll welcome the overflow, maybe a few flowers'll blow my way.

HERE LIES GRITS.

[Payson Dave]

What is the latest tally with these two strategies...???

[Grits]

Above in the blue letters, and I've no idea what going down at GP this afternoon. I probably should not look until the day's card is over.

[Antitrust32]

Above in the blue letters, and I've no idea what going down at GP this afternoon. I probably should not look until the day's card is over.

not looking too good for you today at GP so far. Its been longshot central over there lately. craziness... I dont remember seeing tracks like this in forever.

[Antitrust32]

there was a nice exacta at aqueduct though today.. might make up a little (but I think GP place prices are still more for the day)

[randallscott35]

DAY SIX MARCH 14, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$388.20

Aqueduct: Race 6-- PL: 10.40 EX: 63.00

Gulfstream: Race 1-- PL: 5.80
Gulfstream: Race 3-- PL: 13.80
Gulfstream: Race 5-- PL: 22.60 + 27.40
Gulfstream: Race 6-- PL: 15.80
Gulfstream: Race 9-- PL: 11.80
Santa Anita: Race 2-- PL: 7.20 EX: 18.60
Santa Anita: Race 3-- PL: 11.00
Santa Anita: Race 6-- PL: 11.20



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $322.00 PL $765.60
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$443.60

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (47) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 12


Total Races So Far--146

[Antitrust32]

DAY SIX MARCH 14, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$388.20

Aqueduct: Race 6-- PL: 10.40 EX: 63.00

Gulfstream: Race 1-- PL: 5.80
Gulfstream: Race 3-- PL: 13.80
Gulfstream: Race 5-- PL: 22.60 + 27.40
Gulfstream: Race 6-- PL: 15.80
Gulfstream: Race 9-- PL: 11.80
Santa Anita: Race 2-- PL: 7.20 EX: 18.60
Santa Anita: Race 3-- PL: 11.00
Santa Anita: Race 6-- PL: 11.20 EX: 70.40 (Fave by a measly 100 bucks)



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $392.40 PL $765.60
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$373.20

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (48) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 13

Grits-don't spend that 15 bucks in one place today.

Total Races So Far--146

do you at least find it interesting that you hit 5 more bets than her today and she still won more money?

[Grits]

Randall, I think the 6th at Santa Anita is incorrect. The odds on the exacta were $3.10 on the fav. and $9.90 on the second place finisher.

Rules are rules, that's a tick short of a 10/1, that tick being 10 cents.

So, don't you think that $70+ needs to be removed? I do. No gimmees.

Or maybe I'm incorrect, so please check.

[Antitrust32]

Randall, I think the 6th at Santa Anita is incorrect. The odds on the exacta were $3.10 on the fav. and $9.90 on the second place finisher.

Rules are rules, that's a tick short of a 10/1, that tick being 10 cents.

So, don't you think that $70+ needs to be removed? I do. No gimmees.

Or maybe I'm incorrect, so please check.


still 10-1 on the board... but u are right... randall - that means u kicked her ass again today!

[brianwspencer]

still 10-1 on the board... but u are right... randall - that means u kicked her ass again today!


Nah, the horse would have been 9-1 on the board still.

A 10-1 horse on the board would never pay less than $22.00 even. This horse would have paid $21.80 and would have showed as 9-1 on the board.

[Antitrust32]

Nah, the horse would have been 9-1 on the board still.

A 10-1 horse on the board would never pay less than $22.00 even. This horse would have paid $21.80 and would have showed as 9-1 on the board.

oh and they dont call you a child prodigy for nothing! :D

[brianwspencer]

oh and they dont call you a child prodigy for nothing! :D

just think of it this way, the board will never click until the horse reaches at LEAST the number posted.

in NY, where they have twentieths of odds in their system, a horse that is $2.50-1 will show as 5-2 on the board. A horse that is $2.80-1 will still show as 5-2 as will a horse that is $2.95-1. Until the horse actually HITS 3-1, the horse won't be listed as such.

Imagine betting a horse at 3-1 on the board and only getting back $7.60. You'd be pissed :)

I did go to school as a math major ya know :D I just later became a bleeding heart liberal and felt I needed to read more immigrant literature!

[Antitrust32]

just think of it this way, the board will never click until the horse reaches at LEAST the number posted.

in NY, where they have twentieths of odds in their system, a horse that is $2.50-1 will show as 5-2 on the board. A horse that is $2.80-1 will still show as 5-2 as will a horse that is $2.95-1. Until the horse actually HITS 3-1, the horse won't be listed as such.

Imagine betting a horse at 3-1 on the board and only getting back $7.60. You'd be pissed :)
I did go to school as a math major ya know :D I just later became a bleeding heart liberal and felt I needed to read more immigrant literature!

actually i'd be thrilled that i actually got money back!!!!! :D

[randallscott35]

Randall, I think the 6th at Santa Anita is incorrect. The odds on the exacta were $3.10 on the fav. and $9.90 on the second place finisher.

Rules are rules, that's a tick short of a 10/1, that tick being 10 cents.

So, don't you think that $70+ needs to be removed? I do. No gimmees.

Or maybe I'm incorrect, so please check.
LOL, you are right, the problem was I checked the board at Youbet and not the win payoff. Youbet sucks, update the F ing board....Very honorable of you Grits--my admiration for you is growing by leaps and bounds....Give me 10 minutes and I'll fix it.

[Grits]

LOL, you are right, the problem was I checked the board at Youbet and not the win payoff. Youbet sucks, update the F ing board....Very honorable of you Grits--my admiration for you is growing by leaps and bounds....Give me 10 minutes and I'll fix it.

Thank you Randall. Accuracy is good, it works for us all.

I read over Brisnet's results and charts. Those work for me.

[randallscott35]

Thank you Randall. Accuracy is good, it works for us all.

I read over Brisnet's results and charts. Those work for me.

Well I would obviously do the same if you were doing them...It's hard sometimes to keep it all straight but the easy thing to do is check the off odds at Youbet--always thought they were perfect on that, but maybe I'll pdf results from now on....Minor thing I guess....440 behind. Getting late early.

[Payson Dave]

Equibase.com provides free race charts in a pretty timely manner...usually within an hour of the completion of the race...pdf format that includes finish position and final odds of all runners in the race...may be helpful in this study.

[Payson Dave]

Another few races for the place wagers...

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChart.cfm?TID=GP&CTRY=USA&DAY=D&DT=03/15/2007&STYLE=EQB&RACE=1&BorP=B

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChart.cfm?TID=AQU&CTRY=USA&DAY=D&DT=03/15/2007&STYLE=EQB&RACE=1&BorP=B

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChart.cfm?TID=GP&CTRY=USA&DAY=D&DT=03/15/2007&STYLE=EQB&RACE=4&BorP=B

[randallscott35]

DAY SEVEN MARCH 15, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$443.60

Aqueduct: Race 1-- PL: 10.60
Aqueduct: Race 6--PL: 10.40
Aqueduct: Race 9--PL: 6.30 EX: 28.20

Gulfstream: Race 1-- PL: 11.20
Gulfstream: Race 4-- PL: 12.00
Gulfstream: Race 6-- PL: 11.20
Santa Anita: Race 6-- PL: 9.60 EX: 78.40
Santa Anita: Race 7-- PL: 22.60



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $428.60 PL $859.50
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$430.90

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (55) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 14


Total Races So Far--172

Grits that 13 dollars can get you 12 items, considering tax, on the Wendy's extra value meal. I suggest a plethora of junior cheesburgers, frosties, and sour cream potato--mind you I actually checked the Wendy's website for this post. Sad really.

[Grits]

Thanks RS for posting. I had a couple today, and that works.

I don't do Wendy's. Square burgers on a round bun. --Never have understood that deal.

I'm more of a Panera Bread Co.type. Those do me better.

[randallscott35]

DAY EIGHT MARCH 16, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$430.90


Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 14.80
Gulfstream: Race 3-- PL: 12.60 + 11.80

Santa Anita: Race 3-- PL: 5.00 EX: 9.40
Santa Anita: Race 4-- PL: 34.40+34.80
Santa Anita: Race 5-- PL: 9.40 EX: 56.60



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $494.60 PL $970.50
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$475.90

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (62) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 16

26% Exactas so far--not bad considering faves win 30% of the time and there is no given a 10-1 will run underneath, and yet it's still not close.

Total Races So Far--191

[randallscott35]

DAY NINE MARCH 16, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$475.90


Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 13.00 EX: 49.20
Gulfstream: Race 6-- PL: 12.80
Gulfstream: Race 10-- PL: 15.00 EX: 114.80

Santa Anita: Race 3-- PL: 9.40 EX: 45.20
Santa Anita: Race 5-- PL: 14.40
Santa Anita: Race 10-- PL: 20.00



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $703.80 PL $1055.10
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$351.30

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (68) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 19

Good day for you Grits my dear!!



Total Races So Far--211

[Grits]

Thank you sweetheart, as we mosey along. Tomorrow is Sunday, and that means that you will hammer me once again, more than likely.

[randallscott35]

Thank you sweetheart, as we mosey along. Tomorrow is Sunday, and that means that you will hammer me once again, more than likely.

Don't know how you can do better than 28% exacta rate for races right now. But the big ones at that clip can get you even.

[randallscott35]

DAY TEN (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 18, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$351.30


Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 7.60 EX: 60.40
Gulfstream: Race 3-- PL: 7.00 EX: 39.80
Gulfstream: Race 4-- PL: 10.20
Gulfstream: Race 6-- PL: 21.40
Gulfstream: Race 8-- PL: 10.00 EX: 67.20
Gulfstream: Race 10-- PL: 39.00

Santa Anita: Race 7-- PL: 9.60 + 12.00



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $871.20 PL $1171.50
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$300.30

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (76) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 22



Total Races So Far--230

[Grits]

Still around $300. The $127. exacta in the 6th at GP that I missed by .20 cents, and another small one by another .20 cents at SA would have helped.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Rand, I think I'm going to be buying you a bottle of whiskey darlin.'

[randallscott35]

DAY ELEVEN (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 19, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$300.30


Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 11.20 EX: 57.40




TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $928.60 PL $1182.70
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$254.10

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (77) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 23

Exciting day with all of one race qualifying.

Total Races So Far--239

[Grits]

Give me another week, I'll pass you.

[randallscott35]

Give me another week, I'll pass you.

Not in a week. Maybe 2. You've had a good run. It will go in the other direction. I believe the end will be within 200 bucks.

[Grits]

Rand, I just now looked at today's results at GP, wow, what a chalkfest. Glad I didn't download the races.

[Grits]

Well, I guess they'll run today at Aqueduct--if its sunny, and 70. And they'll run at GP today too.

And what all this means is -- unless I hit a couple of whopping big exactas, Rand's next bottle of fine whiskey is on me!

Maybe today will be MY day . . . right, where's that damn rolling eyes furball?

[randallscott35]

DAY 12 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 21, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$254.10


Aqueduct: Race 1-- PL: 30.60
Aqueduct: Race 2-- PL: 4.80 EX: 7.90
Aqueduct: Race 9-- PL:5.60 EX: 21.20
Gulfstream: Race 1-- PL: 26.80
Gulfstream: Race 3-- PL: 12.20 EX: 88.60
Gulfstream: Race 8-- PL: 10.20
Santa Anita: Race 4-- PL: 10.00




TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $1046.30 PL $1282.90
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$236.20

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (84) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 26

(FIXED)
Got back from a long day to find Grits starting to nip at my heels....Don't worry the Empire will Strike Back eventually.

Total Races So Far--266

[Grits]

Rand, in the 8th at GP, you need to remove the exacta, the 2nd favorite at $1.80 won, over the longshot, the chalk ran 3rd at $1.50.

Anyway that's 250 races, so either way--I don't know what our sampling shows, kinda close at this point, but still you've won. And I will be buying you your favorite whiskey.

Thank you for all the results and posting them. You did a great job.

dg

[randallscott35]

Rand, in the 8th at GP, you need to remove the exacta, the 2nd favorite at $1.80 won, over the longshot, the chalk ran 3rd at $1.50.

Anyway that's 250 races, so either way--I don't know what our sampling shows, kinda close at this point, but still you've won. And I will be buying you your favorite whiskey.

Thank you for all the results and posting them. You did a great job.

dg

NO NO NO. Its not over at all. 250 races towards it....84 instances are done...Its 250 times a 10-1 finishes 1st or 2nd. Still a long long way to go. Only a third of it is done. This is a large sample we are doing. Will be done in about 20 more days I'm guessing. That will de definitive.

[Antitrust32]

no there are still about 165 races to go

[Grits]

Ok, I thought that you meant a total of 250 races. Good, then, we still have more work to do.

Thank you again, and sorry that you had such a long day. Get some rest.

[randallscott35]

Ok, I thought that you meant a total of 250 races. Good, then, we still have more work to do.

Thank you again, and sorry that you had such a long day. Get some rest.
The blue tinted info is all that matters. The races thing is something you wanted me to add....thanks, my day was good though it was long...Appreciate taking the exacta back---close faves and I'm tired so I missed it.

[randallscott35]

DAY 13 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 22, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$236.20


Aqueduct: Race 5-- PL: 8.20
Aqueduct: Race 6-- PL: 9.50 EX: 44.20
Aqueduct: Race 8-- PL: 10.40

Santa Anita: Race 1-- PL: 44.60 EX: 193.40 (Grits dream exacta happens!)
Santa Anita: Race 4-- PL: 8.60
Santa Anita: Race 5-- PL: 10.40
Santa Anita: Race 7-- PL: 15.00
Santa Anita: Race 8-- PL: 17.00 EX: 40.40




TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $1324.30 PL $1406.60
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$83.30

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (92) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 29

A nightmare day indeed. I feel like somewhere I lost the fat kid at the end of my tug of war rope and am now being pulled towards the center. Where is he?

Total Races Run At All Tracks During The Contest--292

[Grits]

Where's one of those big kiss and hug furballs when you need one!!!! Calls for a Crown--on the rocks. My dream exacta, indeed.

Thank you Rand.

(((((((*kiss*)))))))

[ArlJim78]

And as they move on up the backstretch, Grits makes a run up into contention not wanting to let randall get too loose on the lead.

[Grits]

I really don't want to be looking at his hind all the way to the finish line, ArlJ.

I DON'T.

[ArlJim78]

Well then you'll just have to pass him, then you won't have to look at it.

[Antitrust32]

another huge day for grits so far... may pull ahead. racing finally getting back 2 normal at GP

[Grits]

another huge day for grits so far... may pull ahead. racing finally getting back 2 normal at GP

LOLOL, . . .A.T., thanks I gotta go look!

[randallscott35]

DAY 14 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 23, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$83.30

Aqueduct: Race 2-- PL: 14.60 EX: 116.00
Aqueduct: Race 5-- PL: 35.40 (Dodged a nice bullet on a near fave)
Aqueduct: Race 9-- PL: 9.10 EX: 46.80
Gulfstream: Race 1-- PL: 7.40
Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 16.60 EX: 49.80
Gulfstream: Race 5-- PL: 7.00 EX: 31.40
Gulfstream: Race 8-- PL: 13.60


Santa Anita: Race 1-- PL: 7.40 EX: 15.40
Santa Anita: Race 4-- PL: 31.80
Santa Anita: Race 5-- PL: 33.40
Santa Anita: Race 6-- PL: 19.60 EX: 60.60


TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $1644.30 PL $1602.50
DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$41.80

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (103) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 35

The front wraps have just been added to me in mid-running. LOL, good day for you. I feel like Hillary Swank in Boys Don't Cry.

Total Races Run At All Tracks During The Contest--319

[Grits]

Well, I'll be darn. If this were the wire, I'd say we're pretty close.

Thank you Rand for posting. If you play tomorrow, good luck, I hope that you have winning tickets.

This has been a very long week.

[randallscott35]

Well, I'll be darn. If this were the wire, I'd say we're pretty close.

Thank you Rand for posting. If you play tomorrow, good luck, I hope that you have winning tickets.

This has been a very long week.
Thanks Grits. Go celebrate tonight. B/c like a horse on EPO, I'll find another gear eventually.

[ArlJim78]

OMG randall!

you better hope she made her move prematurely.

front wraps added druing the race? too funny.

[randallscott35]

OMG randall!

you better hope she made her move prematurely.

front wraps added druing the race? too funny.
Jim her move was wide and I have Borel on my back (that sounds bad) so you know what that means.

[ArlJim78]

Ah ah, then you're in good hands with Bo-rail.

[Grits]

I wish we would change venues today. Let's do TURFWAY. I feel some fine exactas brewing.

[randallscott35]

Another devastating exacta at AQ. The fave by a grand teams up with a 55-1.

[Grits]

Another devastating exacta at AQ. The fave by a grand teams up with a 55-1.

Oh, how grand!

[randallscott35]

90-1 and a 12-1 in the same race at the Gulf...I'm not going anywhere missy.

[Grits]

Bud, where are our results???

90-1 and a 12-1 in the same race at the Gulf...I'm not going anywhere missy.

[randallscott35]

Bud, where are our results???

You're kidding right? This ain't a taxi service. I just got home. You get results when I'm good and ready.

[randallscott35]

DAY 15 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 24, 2007 Carryover EXACTA BETTING +$41.80

Aqueduct: Race 4-- PL: 12.60
Aqueduct: Race 5-- PL: 30.80 EX: 216.00
Aqueduct: Race 8-- PL: 15.00

Gulfstream: Race 8-- PL: 60.80 + 13.40
Gulfstream: Race 9-- PL: 20.00 EX: 93.60


Santa Anita: Race 5-- PL: 6.20 EX: 34.00


TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $1987.90 PL $1761.30
DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$226.60

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (110) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 38

(Had to add 1 to the 10-1s --b/c of the two in GP race 8.--that gets you 1 closer to the crown Grits)

Total Races Run At All Tracks During The Contest--348

[Grits]

You been out chasin' wimmen!!!!!!! I'm sure.

Glad you found time to post results, it could've waited. No biggie.

[Grits]

Rand, you missed my exacta in the 5th at Santa Anita, $34.00

Check in case, I'm wrong.

EDIT: place is $6.80 I think. It's late.

[randallscott35]

Rand, you missed my exacta in the 5th at Santa Anita, $34.00

Check in case, I'm wrong.
Yep, sorry, give me a minute......ok done.

[TheSpyder]

Would you be kind enough to explain what this thread is about? Are you picking long shots or keeping track of all that run?

Thanks,

Spyder from SC

[Grits]

In the paddock folder Spyder, there is the original thread regarding the contest. You may have to go back 6 or so pages, but its there. (look at the beginning date of this thread, and go back in order to find the thread in the paddock folder.) It explains the premise.

Would you be kind enough to explain what this thread is about? Are you picking long shots or keeping track of all that run?

Thanks,

Spyder from SC

[randallscott35]

First race of the day and you hit an exacta...I feel like Jodie Foster in The Accused.

[Grits]

This is good, maybe there will be a few more. You watch, ok.

It's beautiful outside, not a cloud anywhere and there's lots to do all around the yard with everything leafing out, and greening up. (If I can hang with the pollen.)

First race of the day and you hit an exacta...I feel like Jodie Foster in The Accused.

[randallscott35]

This is good, maybe there will be a few more. You watch, ok.

It's beautiful outside, not a cloud anywhere and there's lots to do all around the yard with everything leafing out, and greening up. (If I can hang with the pollen.)
I can't watch today. Heading to the GTown NC game at the Big M....Pretty good stuff though I'm not a big College Basket fan...Hopefully I'll come home to some big place prices. Probably not.

[Grits]

Now that's a way to spend the afternoon. Have fun. GO HEELS!

I can't watch today. Heading to the GTown NC game at the Big M....Pretty good stuff though I'm not a big College Basket fan...Hopefully I'll come home to some big place prices. Probably not.

[randallscott35]

DAY 16 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 25, 2007 Carryover EXACTA BETTING +$226.60

Aqueduct: Race 1-- PL: 8.90 EX: 36.60
Aqueduct: Race 5-- PL: 9.60 EX: 16.80
Aqueduct: Race 8-- PL: 11.00
Aqueduct: Race 9-- PL: 11.20

Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 13.60
Gulfstream: Race 6-- PL: 8.80 EX: 25.20
Gulfstream: Race 9-- PL: 13.80
Gulfstream: Race 10-- PL: 11.80 EX: 63.80


Santa Anita: Race 1-- PL: 6.00 EX: 30.60
Santa Anita: Race 4-- PL: 6.80 EX: 22.20
Santa Anita: Race 5-- PL: 24.00
Santa Anita: Race 7-- PL: 7.60 EX: 14.80


TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $2197.90 PL $1894.40
DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$303.50

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (122) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 45 (37%)

Just getting my head handed to me. 37% when you started 1 for 11 is fantastic. Am I dead?...Nope, but I can't get too far behind.

Total Races Run At All Tracks During The Contest--376

[Grits]

Thanks for posting Rand.

I'm sorry the Heels lost today. They've choked on some many BIG games over the years. Man, have they ever.

[randallscott35]

Thanks for posting Rand.

I'm sorry the Heels lost today. They've choked on some many BIG games over the years. Man, have they ever.
I was rooting for GTown Grits, I was quite happy.

[Grits]

Good, I'm glad your team pulled it out for you. They were good. Carolina blew a 10 point lead. Where's that rolling eyes furball thing.

Such is life.

[randallscott35]

DAY 17 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 26, 2007 Carryover EXACTA BETTING +$303.50



Gulfstream: Race 3-- PL: 13.80
Gulfstream: Race 4-- PL: 12.00 EX: 51.40
Gulfstream: Race 5-- PL: 10.80
Gulfstream: Race 8-- PL: 7.80



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $2249.30 PL $1938.80
DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$310.50

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (126) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 46 (36.5%)


Total Races Run At All Tracks During The Contest--385

[Grits]

Thank you for posting Rand.