brianwspencer
03-03-2007, 09:03 PM
I love this one tomorrow in the Appleton, at what might be juicy odds.
I'll just paste out of my blog as to the reasons why. No mortal lock by any means, but I don't see why he doesn't have a shot in here at a nice price.
I think the most valuable trip handicapping comes from watching a race and finding trouble that you can't just see, but have to analyze. I bring this up because one of the horses who I saw experiencing this type of trouble last out is running back tomorrow at 10/1 ML odds at Gulfstream.
Gin and Sin runs back tomorrow in the Appleton. He ran last in the Mac Diarmida Handicap on January 28. Visually, he got a perfect trip in that race, as he was forwardly placed the entire way and then came up empty in the stretch. However, that race took a shape that was entirely unpredictable when handicapping on paper prior to the race. There was speedball Mending Fences who was a mortal lock to be winging it out on the lead while taking a big step up in class. The horse has obvious talent, but is a confirmed frontrunner. The Pletcher/Sciametta trained Ramazutti was entered as well, and he was also a confirmed frontrunner. Ramazutti hadn't won in what seemed like forever, and his style had been always to be up with the pace, usually leading the way. Gin and Sin tended to get a good stalking trip in many of his prior races, and it appeared that way for him in the Diarmida. On paper is was clear that Mending Fences and Ramazutti were both going to go for the lead as neither had ever shown any ability to stalk or come from off the pace...from a betting perspective, they should have cancelled each other out at the mile and three-eighths distance and set the table for midpack runners and late runners.
When the race was actually being run, Gin and Sin hurried over from the 12 post and engaged Mending Fences. This was supposed to have been Ramazutti's style. Mending Fences and Gin and Sin ran as a pair all the way around until the quarter pole, at which point they both threw in the towel finishing sixth and seventh respectively. Gin and Sin ran evenly in the stretch and managed to finish in good position as Ramazutti closed from the third spot in the stretch to win this one easily.
What I took note of was how Gin and Sin stayed on fairly well in the stretch to finish seventh after running a race that was more or less entirely against his running style. He and Ramazutti were each in what should have (on paper) been the other's spot which is why I thought the race would set up perfectly for Gin and Sin. Instead, it set up perfectly for Ramazutti, who was occupying the spot that Gin and Sin should have been racing in.
In that sense, he had a troubled trip due to the position he was placed in by Guidry. It went against his typical running style and that left him empty in the stretch.
With that said, the competition tomorrow is pretty steep and he probably deserves his 10/1 morning line installment. However, he's shown in the past that he is very tractable and able to handle several different pace/running scenarios with fair succcess. Should he get back to his stalking style tomorrow instead of freewheeling it out front with another speedball, his price may be attractive and redemption at the windows may be in the cards.
I'll just paste out of my blog as to the reasons why. No mortal lock by any means, but I don't see why he doesn't have a shot in here at a nice price.
I think the most valuable trip handicapping comes from watching a race and finding trouble that you can't just see, but have to analyze. I bring this up because one of the horses who I saw experiencing this type of trouble last out is running back tomorrow at 10/1 ML odds at Gulfstream.
Gin and Sin runs back tomorrow in the Appleton. He ran last in the Mac Diarmida Handicap on January 28. Visually, he got a perfect trip in that race, as he was forwardly placed the entire way and then came up empty in the stretch. However, that race took a shape that was entirely unpredictable when handicapping on paper prior to the race. There was speedball Mending Fences who was a mortal lock to be winging it out on the lead while taking a big step up in class. The horse has obvious talent, but is a confirmed frontrunner. The Pletcher/Sciametta trained Ramazutti was entered as well, and he was also a confirmed frontrunner. Ramazutti hadn't won in what seemed like forever, and his style had been always to be up with the pace, usually leading the way. Gin and Sin tended to get a good stalking trip in many of his prior races, and it appeared that way for him in the Diarmida. On paper is was clear that Mending Fences and Ramazutti were both going to go for the lead as neither had ever shown any ability to stalk or come from off the pace...from a betting perspective, they should have cancelled each other out at the mile and three-eighths distance and set the table for midpack runners and late runners.
When the race was actually being run, Gin and Sin hurried over from the 12 post and engaged Mending Fences. This was supposed to have been Ramazutti's style. Mending Fences and Gin and Sin ran as a pair all the way around until the quarter pole, at which point they both threw in the towel finishing sixth and seventh respectively. Gin and Sin ran evenly in the stretch and managed to finish in good position as Ramazutti closed from the third spot in the stretch to win this one easily.
What I took note of was how Gin and Sin stayed on fairly well in the stretch to finish seventh after running a race that was more or less entirely against his running style. He and Ramazutti were each in what should have (on paper) been the other's spot which is why I thought the race would set up perfectly for Gin and Sin. Instead, it set up perfectly for Ramazutti, who was occupying the spot that Gin and Sin should have been racing in.
In that sense, he had a troubled trip due to the position he was placed in by Guidry. It went against his typical running style and that left him empty in the stretch.
With that said, the competition tomorrow is pretty steep and he probably deserves his 10/1 morning line installment. However, he's shown in the past that he is very tractable and able to handle several different pace/running scenarios with fair succcess. Should he get back to his stalking style tomorrow instead of freewheeling it out front with another speedball, his price may be attractive and redemption at the windows may be in the cards.